The UK betting and gaming sector faces a possible financial downturn if new tax hikes go forward, in accordance with impartial evaluation by EY. Commissioned by the Betting and Gaming Council (BGC), the research warns that proposals from the Social Market Foundation (SMF) and the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) might lead to tens of hundreds of job losses, diminished tax income, and an expanded unlawful playing market.
EY’s findings recommend that the proposed tax will increase might eradicate over 40,000 jobs, shift £8.4 billion in wagers to the black market, and cut back the sector’s financial contribution by £3.1 billion. Despite these penalties, the brand new tax charges would generate solely a fraction of the extra income forecasted by their proponents.
Currently, the regulated playing business contributes £6.8 billion to the UK financial system and pays £4 billion in taxes yearly. It helps greater than 109,000 jobs nationwide, with main hubs in Stoke-on-Trent, Manchester, Leeds, Nottingham, Sunderland, and Warrington. The proposed tax measures, nonetheless, might erode this basis, with important repercussions for staff, companies, and native economies.
BGC Chief Executive Grainne Hurst known as the proposed will increase a direct risk to progress, stating:
“It is now clear these further tax rises are a direct threat to British jobs and economic growth. The figures speak for themselves – tens of thousands of jobs lost, billions diverted to the black market, and a possible £3 billion hit to the economy. Tax raids like those proposed would mean fewer betting shops, casinos and bingo halls, fewer jobs, and a huge boost to the growing, unsafe gambling black market, while not raising anywhere near the tax claimed.”
Impact of Proposed Tax Changes
Under present rules, UK bookmakers pay tax on Gross Gambling Yield (GGY) — the distinction between stakes and buyer winnings — at 21% for on-line gaming, 20% for machine gaming, and 15% for sports activities betting. The suppose tanks suggest elevating these charges to 50% for on-line gaming and 25% for sports activities betting.
EY’s modeling reveals that the IPPR proposal would eradicate 40,000 jobs, redirect £8.4 billion in stakes to unregulated operators, and reduce £3.1 billion from the UK’s Gross Value Added (GVA). The SMF proposal, whereas barely much less extreme, would nonetheless lead to 30,200 job losses, an £8.1 billion black market shift, and a £2.5 billion drop in financial output.
Although the IPPR claimed its suggestions might yield £3.2 billion in new tax income, EY estimates the true determine would seemingly be nearer to £1 billion. Once diminished employment, decrease company tax, and different oblique results are thought-about, the Treasury’s precise web acquire might fall to under £500 million.
Industry specialists warning that greater taxes would make the regulated market much less aggressive, driving gamers towards offshore and unlawful operators providing higher odds and promotions. This, they warn, would erode client protections and cut back total tax receipts.
EY additionally highlighted that each suppose tanks failed to think about the 2023 Gambling Act Review White Paper, which is already projected to chop sector income by £1 billion. Their progress assumptions — 31% by 2025 — additionally diverge from EY’s forecast of a modest 4% progress between 2023 and 2026.
Industry Reaction and Wider Implications
The proposed tax hikes have sparked concern throughout the betting business. One of the operators warned that further levies might result in the closure of its 1,300 betting outlets, threatening practically 7,000 jobs. Entain CEO Stella David additionally cautioned that greater taxes might push extra shoppers towards the black market, undermining current regulatory safeguards.
Hurst emphasised that secure taxation and balanced regulation are important for sustaining a protected, thriving business, including:
“Balanced regulations and a stable tax regime guarantee a growing regulated sector. But these proposals would achieve the absolute opposite of that and undermine the very consumer protections that keep people safe by pushing customers towards the unregulated black market, where there are no safeguards, no tax receipts, no jobs, and no support for the sports we all love.”
The EY evaluation concludes that greater tax charges would fail to realize their meant fiscal objectives, as an alternative damaging one of many UK’s most regulated and internationally aggressive industries.
Global Gaming Bodies Unite to Address Industry Challenges
A 12 months in the past, the American Gaming Association (AGA), European Casino Association (ECA), and Betting and Gaming Council (BGC) have joined forces to deal with world points resembling unlawful playing and accountable gaming by a newly signed Memorandum of Understanding (MOU).
The partnership between AGA, ECA, and BGC goals to boost collaboration on key subjects, together with business innovation, participant safety, and cross-border safety. Bill Miller, AGA President and CEO, described it as “a significant step forward in our collective efforts to advance the legal gaming industry and protect consumers around the globe.”
The settlement lays the groundwork for joint analysis tasks and knowledge-sharing initiatives among the many three associations. One of the primary main actions below the MOU can be a regulation enforcement roundtable in January 2025, targeted on combating unlawful playing networks and bettering coordination between regulators and regulation enforcement businesses.
By uniting below a shared imaginative and prescient, the AGA, ECA, and BGC purpose to make sure a safe, accountable, and revolutionary future for the worldwide gaming business.
Source:
“Further tax raid on betting threatens 40,000 jobs and £3BN blow to UK economy, warns new analysis“, bettingandgamingcouncil.com, October 26, 2025.
