The UK Gambling Commission (UKGC) has concluded its four-part analysis mission on unlawful on-line playing, revealing persistent difficulties in precisely assessing the size of the black market. The closing report, Estimating the Size of the Illegal Online Gambling Market, compiles months of evaluation into shopper behaviour, danger evaluation, and enforcement efforts, whereas underscoring how restricted information continues to hinder dependable market estimates.
Complexities of Quantifying a Hidden Market
The Commission said that measuring the scale of the unlawful on-line playing market stays methodologically complicated, with information limitations and mandatory assumptions undermining confidence in any single estimate. It in contrast these challenges to these encountered by different authorities our bodies making an attempt to evaluate illicit trades, such because the unlawful tobacco market.
The UKGC explored three strategies for quantifying unlawful playing exercise: the dwell time method, which converts participant engagement information into spending estimates; the channelisation method, which compares regulated and unregulated market participation; and a survey-based method. However, it pursued solely the primary two strategies after deeming survey-based information unreliable on account of poor shopper recall of previous playing expenditure.
Both the dwell time and channelisation approaches offered helpful insights however finally fell brief of producing a definitive determine for the scale of Britain’s unlawful market. “Dwell time approach allows us to attempt to convert objective estimates of engagement data using known data from legal market,” the report famous, whereas acknowledging that “further work on these actions is required before we will reach a position where reliable estimates can be published.”
Using the dwell time methodology, the Commission reviewed the exercise of 117 gamers who engaged with unlawful playing web sites. Sports betting proved to be the preferred exercise, accounting for 34% of members, adopted by bingo at 14%, and each slots and instantaneous win video games at 13%. The UKGC cautioned that the small and unrepresentative pattern restricted the reliability of these findings.
Methodology
The regulator additionally examined “Patterns of Play” information inside the authorized market, which revealed a mean gross playing yield (GGY) of £1.12 per minute for on line casino video games and £0.32 for slots based mostly on 2018–19 information—figures now thought of outdated. A more moderen dataset confirmed on-line slots GGY per minute remained secure between 2020 and 2025, reaching £0.24 as of March 2025.
Meanwhile, the channelisation methodology required verification of internet site visitors and app utilization information to make sure correct estimates. The UKGC compiled a listing of licensed operators and used analytics from ComparableWeb, although it recognised key limitations—notably the dearth of perception into app-based engagement for unlawful web sites. The regulator emphasised the necessity for cooperation from licensed operators to validate information accuracy.
It additional famous that even small variances in channelisation estimates might considerably alter monetary interpretations. For occasion, based mostly on an annual GGY of £6.9 billion from April 2023 to March 2024, a 0.5% deviation might equal £34.5 million.
Strengthened Evidence Base, Continued Uncertainty
Despite the absence of a conclusive determine, the UKGC mentioned its analysis has improved understanding of how unlawful operators perform and why customers interact with them. Findings present motivations fluctuate broadly—starting from lack of consciousness {that a} web site is prohibited to deliberate avoidance of the regulated market on account of self-exclusion or restrictions.
Importantly, there was no proof of sustained development in unlawful market participation in areas the place information exists. The regulator careworn that whereas a lot exercise happens past its oversight, the chance to customers and the regulated sector stays appreciable.
Chief Executive Andrew Rhodes commented: “Illegal online gambling remains a serious threat to consumers and to the integrity of the regulated market. While measuring the full scale of the problem is complex, our understanding is growing — and so too is our ability to disrupt illegal operators. Our independent research has strengthened the evidence base, improved transparency, and underlined that progress depends on a collective effort across sectors.”
In the report’s conclusion, the UKGC outlined plans to proceed analysis and enforcement actions. Future work could embody analysing VPN utilization tendencies, monitoring search exercise for unlicensed operators, and revising engagement fashions with up to date information from licensed operators.
Commitment to Continued Research
Director of enforcement and intelligence John Pierce added that the regulator is enhancing its intelligence capabilities by means of partnerships throughout monetary, technological, and regulatory sectors. “Illegal gambling is not a static threat,” Pierce mentioned. “It is adaptive, opportunistic and increasingly embedded in digital ecosystems on the international stage. Through targeted disruption, strategic partnerships and continued investment in capability, we are building a resilient and effective framework to protect consumers and uphold the integrity of the regulated sector. We are making progress; and we are committed to going further.”
Although this report concludes the sequence, the Commission confirmed on its website that additional updates will comply with as ongoing analysis and enforcement evolve. The initiative displays a long-term dedication to understanding and countering unlawful playing by means of collaboration and evidence-driven technique.
