Despite the continued controversy surrounding prediction markets, the trade continues to take pleasure in file buying and selling. Operators noticed an all-time excessive common each day buying and selling quantity in October, reaching $4.13 billion.
It was a 55% month-over-month improve, in keeping with Dan Fannon, a analysis analyst and managing director at Jefferies. Sports occasion contracts, which proceed to attract authorized motion from state gaming regulators, accounted for $3 billion in each day quantity, 78% of all buying and selling.
Non-sports buying and selling additionally climbed 55% to a median each day quantity of $843 million. Kalshi saw about $2.6 billion in midterm buying and selling quantity total, in keeping with Futurum Equities Chief Market Strategist Shay Boloor.
Platform Activity Continues To Surge
Other numbers Fannon launched level to much more development for prediction market companies. In October, open curiosity reached $3.27 billion, up 45% from September and a file excessive. Open curiosity is the whole worth of energetic, unsettled contracts merchants are presently holding.
For particular person operators, Polymarket common each day quantity rose 50% from the earlier month to $655 million. That whole was up a staggering 395% from the identical month in 2025.
Other platforms lined within the report registered $309 million of mixed common each day quantity, a 56% month-to-month improve from September and 710% surge from October 2025. These different platforms maintain about 7% market share.
Sports proceed to be the primary driver in prediction market development. The platforms have taken benefit of the beginning of soccer, basketball, and hockey seasons. Sports contracts’ share of open curiosity climbed to 83% in October, up from 73% in September.
‘Combo’ Trading Targeted
State regulators and a few federal officers declare that occasion contracts violate state gaming legal guidelines and have tried to control operators. While such a buying and selling has been a serious bone of competition, sports activities contracts at the moment are drawing new criticisms.
New York Attorney General Letitia James (D) alleges Kalshi’s “combo” merchandise truly perform as parlay wagers. She accused the corporate of secretly taking sides on contracts. If true, it will undercut the corporate’s claims that it acts solely as an change providing peer-to-peer buying and selling.
“The NY AG alleges that 100% of Kalshi combo bets have Kalshi’s own affiliated market maker or one of its approved market makers on the other side – not another ordinary user,” gaming lawyer Daniel Wallach posted on X/Twitter.
The allegation got here in a petition to implement a subpoena issued within the lawyer basic’s separate civil investigation of the corporate. Some within the trade deny this buying and selling construction truly exists.
Kalshi and different prediction markets have persistently stated their choices are completely different from conventional sports activities betting and controlled solely on the federal stage by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
“On Kalshi, there is no house, anybody can win,” Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour advised CNBC in December.
With differing opinions from appeals courts regarding prediction markets, New Jersey has requested the Supreme Court to evaluate the problem.
- Photo – Shutterstock/PJ McDonell
