Grey Dawning
11/82.38 favourite to win the Betfair Chase
A likeable chaser, Grey Dawning beat Gaillard Du Mesnil in convincing vogue to land the Graduation Chase at this assembly two years in the past. That season, he went on to land the Grade Two Hampton Novices’ Chase by 14-lengths at Warwick, earlier than claiming a primary Grade One success within the Turners’ Novices’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.
The gray was no match for Il Etait Temps within the Manifesto at Aintree, however had greater than introduced himself as an thrilling chaser for the long run after a powerful novice marketing campaign over the bigger obstacles.
Following a 226-day break, Grey Dawning made his seasonal return within the Betfair Chase 12 months in the past, despatched off at odds of 15/82.88 in his first run in open firm. The softer circumstances had been seemingly to swimsuit the gelding, who had sturdy kind in testing floor coming into the race, however he wasn’t in a position to end as strongly because the defending champion Royale Pagaille. Dan Skelton’s consultant jumped the final in entrance however could not repel the problem of the eventual winner. Grey Dawning had to accept second greatest, crushed two-lengths at the road by his elder rival.
Grey Dawning is coming into the race with the advantage of extra expertise this time round, and did return to successful methods subsequently beating Iroko in a Listed Kelso contest earlier than ending second to the gifted Gaelic Warrior within the Aintree Bowl, however he lacks a latest run as soon as once more.
The seemingly much less testing circumstances ought to enable him to end stronger, nonetheless, and the forecast is generally dry forward of Saturday’s showpiece occasion. A sounder floor could be much less preferable for the hat-trick looking for Royale Pagaille, too, which additional enhances Grey Dawning’s claims.
The yard has been in distinctive type of late and loved plenty of winners at Cheltenham’s November Meeting final weekend.
Whilst Grey Dawning holds apparent main claims on the again of final yr’s gutsy effort, and contemplating the actual fact he has the scope for additional development over fences, he does face attention-grabbing opposition and should reverse kind with the reigning champion.
Haiti Couleurs
(*1*)
Haiti Couleurs has been a revelation for the Rebecca Curtis yard over the previous yr. He completed second on chasing debut to Destroytheevidence at Chepstow final autumn when rated 122, earlier than recording a 15-length success over Uncle Bert at Aintree, subsequently given a 5lb rise.
That rise wasn’t sufficient to deter his progress as he claimed handicap success at Cheltenham in his following outing with future champion jockey Sean Bowen guiding him to victory at odds of 4/15.00 from a mark of 130.
The eight-year-old was then despatched off as joint-favourite for the National Hunt Cup at the Festival, prevailing by four-and-a-half-lengths over Rock My Way, earlier than lining up within the Irish Grand National from a 6lb greater mark of 141.
At Fairyhouse in mushy to heavy circumstances final Easter, the gutsy performer dominated, successful by three-and-a-quarter-lengths over courageous veteran Any Second Now in a magical win for the Welsh yard.
On his seasonal reappearance earlier this month, Haiti Couleurs took benefit of a mistake by Bill Baxter to make a successful return over hurdles, which ought to set him up completely for this Grade One project.
He’s now rated 13lb greater than his National success, given a mark of 154 which provides him 12lb to discover with Grey Dawning on scores. However, he is a progressive kind on an upward trajectory, and fully unexposed at this degree.
The gutsy performer has confirmed stamina and is floor versatile. Whether or not he’s up to Grade One degree stays to be seen, however he warrants respect and is harmful to oppose in present kind.
Royale Pagaille
4/15.00 to win the Betfair Chase
Reigning champion Royale Pagaille is bidding for a 3rd successive victory in a race which has seen plenty of a number of winners, most notably four-timer Kauto Star. The Venetia Williams-trained gelding would match Bristol De Mai and Cue Card if in a position to efficiently defend his crown once more, and would make historical past as the primary horse to land three in a row.
The 11-year-old has been suited by this stiff stamina take a look at lately, with the rain usually having a major impact on the bottom circumstances at the venue. He has at all times been seen to his greatest on a extra testing floor and had received a Grade Two in addition to a novice chase occasion prior to lining up in his first Betfair Chase.
Royale Pagaille completed second to a future Gold Cup winner in A Plus Tard in 2021 earlier than beating Bravemansgame to the prize two years later. He received the Peter Marsh in 2022, too, and, though he hasn’t been as efficient in his newest runs, the return to this contest wherein he’s confirmed ought to swimsuit.
The floor is probably going to be drier than ideally suited, which can inconvenience Royale Pagaille while enhancing the claims of others, and it is a slight concern, nonetheless, the course kind coupled with the latest race kind makes him inconceivable to rule out.
Although he’s weak to a youthful improver, and should not have circumstances to completely swimsuit this time round, Royale Pagaille is the one to beat as a twin winner of a specialist race and calls for respect.
Handstands
11/26.50 to win the Betfair Chase
A primary runner for Ben Pauling within the Betfair Chase, Handstands is an intriguing contender in solely his seventh begin as a chaser.
The level winner loved a fruitful novice chasing marketing campaign final time period following a fall when 7/42.75 favorite within the Rising Stars at Wincanton. He was in a position to put that disappointment behind him and win three successive races together with the Grade One Scilly Isles when beating subsequent Arkle winner Jango Baie.
That top-class victory came to visit two-and-a-half-miles in heavy floor at Sandown the place the son of Getaway was in a position to repel the problem of the Seven Barrows contender, exhibiting an excellent angle late on to narrowly prevail. Third-placed Mark Of Gold subsequently franked the shape as did fourth-placed Kalif Du Berlais, who claimed a Grade One success of his personal at Aintree in his following begin.
His last run of final season is value forgiving contemplating he was badly hampered by the autumn of Dancing City and was pulled up because of this having misplaced loads of floor and momentum. He could not have been travelling in addition to he can prior to that incident, the sounder floor and drier circumstances maybe not completely suited to him. It’s troublesome to say how properly his ending effort could have been. It is a run value placing a line by way of.
In his seasonal reappearance at Carlisle lately, on the again of a 212-day break, Handstands travelled properly into the race however was overtaken late on by eventual winner Resplendent Grey. He could come on for his first outing of the season and has the advantage of a latest run coming into the race.
Unexposed in open firm at this degree, Handstands is a promising prospect who has the scope for additional enchancment. His coach appears to have loads of religion in him and his talents. With confirmed stamina over three miles, he might be able to making a profitable step up to this degree.
Stellar Story
11/112.00 to win the Betfair Chase
A possible uncommon runner for Gordon Elliott within the Betfair Chase, Stellar Story is one other attention-grabbing contender for the staying contest who may make his seasonal reappearance following a 207-day break.
The eight-year-old beat his stablemate Search For Glory to land the Grade Two Florida Pearl at Punchestown on chasing debut12 months in the past, however did not run his race when upped to Grade One degree in his subsequent begin. He discovered Better Days Ahead and Lecky Watson too good, respectively, in his following two runs, together with within the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.
The earlier yr, Stellar Story offered a shock at Prestbury Park when narrowly denying The Jukebox Man a particular success within the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle, outrunning his odds of 33/134.00 to prevail on that event.
That was over three miles in heavy floor at Cheltenham, and he was in a position to run a creditable race to make the body as soon as once more there the next season over the bigger obstacles.
In his newest begin at the Punchestown Festival, Stellar Story may solely handle a distant third to Champ Kiely, with Ballyburn in second. He will want to discover vital enchancment now in open firm. He’s a promising stayer, nonetheless, and has confirmed his credentials at the very best degree in novice firm beforehand.
The level winner, who was bought for £310,000 and is a brother to The Storyteller, stays open to additional enchancment and holds each-way claims, significantly contemplating his notable document when contemporary having received on reappearance in each of his earlier two campaigns.
Hitman
16/117.00 to win the Betfair Chase
The Betfair ambassador Paul Nicholls-trained Hitman received on reappearance final month, beating Master Chewy to Old Roan success at Aintree by defying odds of 9/110.00 to land the prize. He had beforehand been pulled up within the Grand National earlier than failing to make an impression within the Oaksey Chase a couple of weeks later, however had completed second in his earlier three begins that season together with to Djelo within the Grade Two Denman Chase at Newbury.
Whilst he is confirmed at Haydock, having received the Graduation Chase at this assembly a couple of years in the past, his stamina over this longer journey is not assured. He hasn’t received over additional than an prolonged 2m5f, though he has positioned over simply shy of three miles, together with when behind the gifted Shishkin final yr.
The sounder floor provides him extra of an opportunity of being aggressive over this distance and he has race health on his aspect, coming right here on the again of an excellent win, however he’ll want to enhance additional to lay a glove on the main contenders ought to they be on music.
It would not be a shock to see him run properly for a good distance however others maintain stronger claims, significantly with confirmed stamina of their favour, and Hitman could also be weak in that regard.
Marsh Wren
33/134.00 to win the Betfair Chase
Bidding to change into the primary mare to win the race, Marsh Wren is the outsider of the sphere for Stuart Edmunds forward of this yr’s renewal. In receipt of weight from her male counterparts, the nine-year-old returns to motion following an absence of just below a yr having recorded a dominant 16-length victory over Apple Away when final seen at Market Rasen.
That was on the again of a 257-day absence and she or he had beforehand received following 265-day and 235-day breaks, respectively, which bodes properly for her probabilities of placing in an excellent effort contemporary on this contest.
This is her first run at Grade One degree and she or he has loads to discover on scores. She is flippantly raced, nonetheless, making solely her sixteenth profession begin, a seventh over fences. She is 4 from six over the bigger obstacles at the moment, and completed third to Limerick Lace within the Mares’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in her penultimate begin.
Marsh Wren has formed with loads of potential as a promising chaser able to posing a menace in powerful races however this problem would require vital enchancment. Although she is one other who stays open to additional development, she has loads to show at this degree on kind proven, regardless of being unexposed.
There might be extra to come from Marsh Wren, who was a convincing winner when final seen and has proven loads of promise since embarking on her chasing profession, however it is a scorching contest. She could have the option to keep on properly to decide up some items late on ought to others disappoint, however it’s arduous to envisage her discovering the required enchancment to beat a area which incorporates a number of confirmed Grade One performers.
Betfair Chase Prediction
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Grey Dawning
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Royale Pagaille
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Handstands
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