Superstars Sydney Sweeney and LeBron James made waves final week with a few viral commercials for prediction markets.
Sweeney bared all of it (okay, not fairly, however shut) in an ad for Novig, a rising sports-only prediction market that started life as an alternate betting product. Then, it dipped its toes within the sweepstakes waters earlier than pivoting to its remaining prediction market type.
Sweeney reportedly pocketed a share of the corporate in alternate for the spot, which is nearing 100,000 likes on X. It sparked considerable backlash, together with from feminine athletes in an Associated Press story.
James, in the meantime, apparently inked a take care of Polymarket. He appeared in an ad together with a slew of different celebrities, each athletes and actors, together with Derek Jeter and Craig Robinson. It has gotten fairly a little bit of airtime on the official MLB streaming app, amongst different media.
James beforehand partnered with DraftKings, so switching to the prediction-market aspect of the sports-gambling enterprise is a radical shift.
Like Sweeney, James was the goal of some derisive response. He was near getting “ratioed,” however his huge attain might be all Polymarket cares about.
NFL Season Is The Biggest Prediction Markets Opportunity Of The Year
Both prediction markets are possible ramping up their advert spend in hopes of capturing enterprise throughout NFL season. Sports contracts stay by far and away the most well-liked side of prediction markets, accounting for an estimated 80% or so of buying and selling quantity.
The most-traded sport of the weekend at high U.S.-facing prediction market Kalshi was the Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants on Sunday Night Football. That one did greater than $112 million in buying and selling quantity. According to TickerTracker, that was greater than any regular-season sport of 2025, illustrating the expansion of prediction markets in the course of the previous 12 months.
Parlay quantity has additionally pushed prediction-market numbers to report heights. Last 12 months, prediction markets had been simply starting to supply a parlay product when NFL season started. This 12 months, Ticker Tracker reported that parlays accounted for about 60% of trading and greater than $5.6 billion in quantity.
Prediction markets have the chance to rake in severe cash this soccer season, so that they lengthy as they will preserve state regulators at bay.
Also in Prediction Market News
Robinhood CEO Says Anti-PM States are Guarding Their Tax Revenue
Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev mentioned that states which are combating the prediction market business in courtroom are simply trying to protect their own tax revenue.
“There’s a huge financial incentive from collecting taxes on these state-owned operators for that to be protected,” he mentioned.
The macro response to this story is “duh.” Of course states are inquisitive about funneling bettors to platforms that produce tax income, often called “channelization” within the business.
Tenev does spotlight a wierd disconnect, intentional or not, within the prediction markets’ framing of the competing regulated playing business. Calling the operators state-owned is basically incorrect, because the playing operators are, for essentially the most half, publicly traded firms. There are just a few state/operator joint monopolies, like that in Oregon, the place DraftKings is the one licensed operator. But the states don’t personal playing operators.
Kalshi pushes an identical agenda with its “free markets over monopolies” web page. Calling casinos monopolies is odd and incorrect. Caesars, Wynn, MGM, and the like could also be united of their push in opposition to prediction markets, however they’re additionally competing with one another.
Court Cases Push Prediction Markets Closer to Supreme Court Ruling
Speaking of Tenev and Robinhood, the finance app and now prediction-market supplier initially joined Crypto.com in urging the Supreme Court to overview a significant anti-PM resolution. Both firms petitioned SCOTUS within the aftermath of the Ninth Circuit Court granting Nevada an injunction to cease Kalshi from providing sports activities contracts.
However, it then reversed course a bit. On Monday, it requested SCOTUS to attend for readability from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission relating to sports activities contracts.
Most business observers see an eventual Supreme Court case as inevitable. However, for now, states throughout the nation are latching onto the Ninth Circuit Court ruling, leveraging it to start or additional their very own makes an attempt at barring sports activities occasion contracts.
Image credit score: Josh Popov/Wikimedia Commons (license)
