Regular readers of mine could have seen that I’ve many occasions warned in opposition to powerful, aggressive opponents who will bluff so much on the flop and, if referred to as, will typically, however not all the time, proceed bluffing on the flip, and, if referred to as, surrender on much more of these bluffs on the river, however not all of them.
Our new ebook talks about this so much. And it goes on to say that when you’re enjoying in opposition to somebody like that (decidedly NOT the everyday opponent we try that will help you beat) it is best to typically fold to his first guess even if you happen to suppose your probabilities of having the very best hand is a bit over 50% (except it doesn’t price you an excessive amount of to maneuver in on his first guess.)
To present why this might occur, I’ll proceed with the lesson I began final column concerning the GTO technique when one hand falls into the class of being both nice or horrible with nothing in between (polarized), whereas the opposite one is merely good.
When not enjoying the river, this exact state of affairs will very hardly ever happen, however typically spots can come shut. (Perhaps somebody flopping a small flush in pot-limit Omaha, whereas the opposite participant has at the least the ace of that swimsuit, however could or could not have the ace excessive flush.)
For the sake of simplicity, I’ll specify that each one bets are pot sized. Recall that GTO requires that the bettor ought to bluff the dimensions of the pot half as typically as his worth bets when he bets the river in opposition to one opponent.
Because that opponent is getting 2:1 and also you need him to be “indifferent” as as to if to name or not, he can not exploit you if you guess on this trend. Meanwhile, the caller who’s enjoying GTO ought to flip a coin to determine whether or not to name as a result of the bettor is getting precisely even cash on his pot-size bluffs.
Keep in thoughts although that if the bettor is utilizing GTO you’ll do equally effectively regardless of how typically you referred to as or folded. This is price realizing as a result of, as we’ll see in a second, it’s typically simpler to do extra complicated calculations below the idea that the GTO guess produced a fold. (Note nonetheless that if the bettor is greater than two-thirds to have it, he ought to all the time guess, and the opposite participant ought to now fold 100% since he’s greater than a 2:1 underdog.)
But issues change if there may be a couple of spherical of betting left. If the following playing cards make virtually no distinction, the bettor’s GTO technique is to bluff A LOT on that first spherical.
Suppose that the possibilities that the bettor has an actual hand is 24%. If there was just one spherical of betting he would guess 36% of the time. So if there was $100 sitting within the pot his EV can be $36 whereas the opponent’s can be $64 no matter how the opponent performed.
But what if there have been three rounds of betting? If it will get to that third spherical, the bettor would once more guess solely 36% of his complete palms. But right here is the factor. On the flip the caller is aware of (GTO assumes he is aware of) that he’s going through a guess that may end in him folding 36% on the river. That implies that if the bettor bets a complete of 54% (36% plus half of that) the caller could as effectively fold to that guess.
Which implies that on the flop, the bettor could be betting 54% plus 27% to make the caller detached as to calling that guess.
We can thus conclude that the caller can’t enhance on the technique of all the time folding (which implies that his EV on this case was solely 19%).
Still skeptical? Let’s see how he would do if he by no means folded.
24% of the time he would lose 100 + 300 + 900 which is an EV of (-$312)
12% of the time he would win the $1,300 complete guess plus the unique $100 which is an EV of $168.
18% of the time he would win 100 + 300 + 100 which is an EV of $90
27% of the time he would win 100 + 100 which is an EV of $54.
19% of the time he would win 100 which is an EV of $19.
This is similar plus $19 EV as would accrue to the participant who simply folds straight away.
(I’ll depart it as an train for the reader to confirm that it’s also the identical EV for the caller who provides up calling on the second or third spherical.)
Don’t fear if you happen to can’t fully comply with the above. Just notice that on this hypothetical state of affairs the bettor can guess palms which are identified to be 24% to be greatest (and can stay greatest), as much as 81% of the time, and the caller (who can’t simply transfer all in), ought to fold and be glad with the $19 EV he picks up when the bettor checks the flop.
Notice additionally that if that 24% was 30%, the aggressor ought to guess 45% on the river, 67.5% on the flip, and 100% on the river. So theoretically the opposite participant ought to all the time fold to that first guess.
Hopefully you see one of many foremost causes you wish to attempt to keep away from enjoying heads up in opposition to one in every of these GTO varieties, particularly out of place with an enormous stack. ♠
David Sklansky is the creator of The Theory of Poker, in addition to almost two dozen different guides on playing, poker, and different video games. The three-time WSOP bracelet winner’s newest ebook, Small Stakes No-Limit Hold’em: Help Them Give You Their Money, is now available on Amazon. You can contact Sklansky at dsklansky@aol.com.
