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poker hand analysis alan keating million dollar cash game alan

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May 1, 2025
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Peter Wang and Alan Keating have dueled on numerous TV streams collectively for large quantities of cash.

In reality, they play collectively so typically that Peter’s unimaginable $2.2 million hero name on the primary day of Hustler Casino Live’s Million Dollar Cash Game III probably got here all the way down to the historical past between the 2 gamers.

While Keating will get all of the accolades, Peter has really gained essentially the most cash within the historical past of Hustler Casino Live. According to Highroll Poker, Wang won nearly $2.9 million in 241 hours of play on the Los Angeles cardroom.

Conversely, Keating is among the greatest losers on this system, down practically $1 million in 140 hours. However, that equates to dropping simply 4 huge blinds per hour.

Let’s dive into one of many greatest arms in televised poker historical past.

Action

The desk was seven-handed with blinds of $1,000-$1,000 with a $2,000 huge blind ante.

Wang raised to $6,000 from beneath the gun with JHeart SuitJClub Suit and Keating referred to as from the cutoff with QSpade SuitTDiamond Suit. “Jack” three-bet to $26,000 from the small blind with QHeart SuitQDiamond Suit. Wang and Keating each referred to as.

The flop was 7Diamond Suit6Diamond Suit4Spade Suit. Jack wager $35,000. Peter referred to as and Keating raised to $180,000. Jack and Peter each referred to as.

The flip was the twoSpade Suit. All three gamers checked.

The river was the ADiamond Suit. Jack checked. Peter checked. Alan Keating moved all-in for $663,000. Jack folded. Peter referred to as.

Peter gained $1.95 million with a pair of jacks.

Analysis

There’s hardly a dwell cash game the place gamers are enjoying roughly 1,000 huge blinds deep, particularly with an ante price twice the large blind. Since stacks are this deep, utilizing a solver is of little use. Solvers are more practical when stacks are shallower.

Furthermore, most of those gamers are straying extraordinarily removed from an optimum GTO technique, as they need to, since they’re enjoying on stream. Trust me, you wouldn’t wish to watch a GTO-heavy cash game.

With pocket jacks, Wang’s open was normal. Given how deep the game is enjoying, and that there’s already $4,000 within the center, elevating to $6,000 is completely wonderful.

On the opposite hand, Keating ought to at all times fold his Q-10 offsuit, however he’s not one to fold huge playing cards in any place. After all, his profession VPIP on stream is reportedly 69%.

Jack ought to be three-betting fairly giant out of the small blind along with his queens. $26,000 is way too small out of place in a multi-way pot in a super-deep game with a big huge blind ante. I might have preferred to see a three-bet measurement of at the very least $35,000.

Wang had a simple name. There’s no level four-betting jacks whenever you’re so deep. Even at 100 huge blinds deep at a 6-max desk, you’d solely four-bet about 33% of the time.

Obviously, Keating ought to be folding, however he’s by no means throwing a hand away when it’s $20,000 extra to play an $81,000 pot in place, despite the fact that he solely has a 6.5% probability of legitimately successful the hand. He was clearly trying to make use of his positional benefit and attempt to win the hand with a bluff post-flop, ought to the chance come up.

The flop was seven-high with two diamonds and Jack wager slightly below half pot. In principle, I choose a verify from Jack on this spot as his two opponents usually tend to flop a set on this board, and in the event that they raised his wager, he can be in a really awkward spot.

The deeper the stack sizes, and the extra opponents are within the hand, make it extra probably Jack ought to be checking on low and middling boards, particularly out of place.

Wang had a simple name. Meanwhile, Keating understood the scenario totally and knew he had the vary benefit. On high of his vary benefit, he had backdoor straight and flush attracts. Knowing the kind of participant he’s, this board was music to his ears, and he began making use of the strain instantly.

Jack and Peter had some uncomfortable however normal calls.

The 2Spade Suit got here and put two flush attracts on the board. If Keating had been to have made a set or two pair on the flop, he would virtually actually jam with a stack-to-pot ratio of about 1:1, as he would wish to both drive folds from flush attracts or cost them closely to chase. He would even be making an attempt to get calls out of some sticky non-believing overpairs.

The ace of diamonds often is the most dynamic card potential within the deck, finishing the unique flush draw and placing an overcard to Jack and Peter’s pocket pairs.

Both of them checked over to Keating, which appeared to cap their ranges.

Jack had proven that he’s not essentially essentially the most astute participant and it’s a secure assumption that he’d put his chips into the center if he made a flush or a set of aces on the river. So when motion checked over to Keating, he jammed for a hair over pot, focusing on precisely what each Jack and Wang had – an overpair that’s not an overpair anymore.

But there’s a giant drawback for Keating. What is he making an attempt to characterize?

Most of his flush draw bluffs on the flop would have included the ADiamond Suit. What two-pair arms with an ace that he bluffs on the flop get there on the river? It’s exhausting to think about something Keating might legitimately have apart from one thing just like the nut flush, which might probably simply name on the flop anyway. Any random ace Keating would have bluffed the flop with, would definitely simply verify the river as nicely.

So whereas Jack doesn’t sniff it out, Peter does, and wins a pot of practically $2 million.

 

 

 





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