Macau’s casino market started the yr with notable energy in its premium mass phase, in keeping with January observations revealed by Citigroup. The agency’s proprietary desk survey reported will increase in common spend amongst higher-end mass gamers and recognized extra large-value bettors than in the identical interval final yr, at the same time as general participant counts declined.
Citigroup analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau reported that the typical wager per premium mass participant reached HKD28,424 (USD3,644), which represented a 41 p.c improve from HKD20,160 (USD2,585) in January 2025. Citigroup described the end result as “positively surprising,” noting that common wagers have been akin to ranges recorded through the 2025 Golden Week interval. Total premium mass wagers noticed reached HKD16 million (USD2.05 million), up 25 p.c year-on-year, regardless of an 11 p.c drop in headcount to 564 gamers.
High-End Premium Mass Activity Expands
Citigroup’s survey indicated {that a} bigger share of premium mass spending originated from the highest-value cohort. Twenty-eight gamers have been recognized as “whales” through the survey interval, in contrast with 24 a yr earlier. Combined play from this group totaled HKD8.1 million (USD1.04 million), implying a median of roughly HKD290,000 (USD37,180) per participant, a rise of 49 p.c year-on-year. Six gamers wagered HKD500,000 (USD64,100) or extra, in contrast with two in January 2025.
The survey’s “Player of the Month” wagered HKD1 million (USD128,200) on the Horizon Room at Galaxy Macau. Citigroup additionally documented massive wagers at City of Dreams and Wynn Macau, together with particular person performs of HKD850,000 (USD109,000) and HKD640,000 (USD82,100), respectively. The analysts advised that spending by prosperous mainland Chinese guests continued to assist the phase and pointed to a mixture of gaming and non-gaming choices that enchantment to those prospects.
On a venue foundation, Galaxy Macau reclaimed the lead in premium mass play in January with a 25 p.c share, in contrast with 27 p.c a yr earlier. According to Asia Gaming Brief, Citigroup described the competitors amongst Wynn Macau, Sands China, and MGM China as a “photo finish.” Promotional efforts additionally seemed to be underway through the survey interval. Concert ticket incentives have been noticed, and renovation work at mass gaming flooring occurred throughout a number of properties forward of the Lunar New Year interval. Citigroup additionally famous that the Pearl Room at Sands Macao had opened, and the Parisian Macao was internet hosting a collaboration with well-liked client model Pop Mart.
Whale Segment Reinforces Citigroup Findings
A separate replace from Citigroup emphasised features in whale play volumes. The financial institution reported a 72.3 p.c year-on-year improve in whale betting exercise and a 16.7 p.c rise within the variety of whales noticed. It recorded HKD8.1 million in noticed whale wagers versus HKD4.7 million in January 2025. “We think it’s safe to say that Macau does have gaming and non-gaming product offerings that appeal to affluent mainland Chinese consumers, who remain willing to spend,” the analysts wrote, including that they encountered “multiple huge whales around Macau.”
While survey outcomes highlighted robust start-of-year spending amongst high-value gamers, JP Morgan drew consideration to the broader mixture of gaming income and its implications for operators’ earnings. Analysts DS Kim, Selina Li, and Lindsey Qian lower their 2026 EBITDA estimates for Macau’s six operators by a median of three to 4 p.c. The agency shifted its ranking on SJM Holdings from Neutral to Underweight and on Melco Resorts from Overweight to Neutral.
JP Morgan famous that gross gaming income grew 9 p.c in 2025, beating its earlier 5 p.c forecast, however EBITDA development reached solely 6 p.c. Adjusting for VIP-related variance, EBITDA development fell to between 1 and a couple of p.c. VIP share elevated to 16 p.c of complete GGR by the tip of the fourth quarter, up from 12 p.c the prior yr. Within mass gaming, JP Morgan advised that margin yield might have softened resulting from shifts towards premium and super-premium play classes.
Operating prices additionally rose. JP Morgan noticed working expense development of roughly 7 p.c in 2025, in contrast with regular inflation of three p.c. The financial institution acknowledged that non-gaming occasions, together with live shows and sports activities, supported income however weighed on margins. It added that the height in GGR development through the fourth quarter and muted margin growth in latest intervals led it to take a extra cautious stance. JP Morgan indicated that it intends to take care of conservative EBITDA estimates till additional indicators of margin enchancment seem.
