Macau’s on line casino sector recorded greater earnings in 2025, reaching its strongest annual efficiency for the reason that Covid-19 pandemic, whilst December income failed to fulfill seasonal expectations and confirmed a slight month-to-month decline.
Data launched by Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau and cited by GGRAsia confirmed that gross gaming income for the complete 2025 calendar yr totaled MOP247.40 billion, equal to US$30.86 billion. That end result represented a 9.1 p.c enhance in contrast with 2024 and marked the best yearly tally since early 2020, when pandemic-related restrictions started to disrupt journey and gaming exercise. Despite the development, the full remained under pre-pandemic ranges, amounting to about 84.6 p.c of the practically MOP292.46 billion recorded in 2019.
December Ends the Year With Mixed Signals
The yr concluded with a modest slowdown in December. Casinos generated MOP20.89 billion in gross gaming income in the course of the month, translating to roughly US$2.61 billion. While this determine mirrored a 14.8 p.c enhance from December a yr earlier, it slipped 0.9 p.c from November’s practically MOP21.09 billion.
Market observers had anticipated a stronger end to the yr following a better-than-expected efficiency in November, with some trade analysts predicting that December may set up a brand new post-pandemic month-to-month excessive. That final result didn’t materialize, and December as an alternative delivered a end result that was optimistic on a year-on-year foundation however softer when seen sequentially.
Deutsche Bank’s evaluation of the December figures pointed to underperformance relative to historic patterns. In a observe issued after the info launch, the financial institution mentioned December income got here in under typical seasonal developments, exhibiting a 90-basis-point sequential decline total, or a 4.1 p.c lower when measured on a per-day foundation. The financial institution added that though December income elevated 14.8 p.c from a yr earlier, it remained 8.5 p.c decrease than the identical month in 2019, underscoring the hole that also separates present outcomes from pre-pandemic benchmarks.
Historical Comparisons and Recovery Pace
According to Deutsche Bank analyst Steven Pizzella, the December final result contrasted sharply with long-term seasonal habits. Between 2013 and 2019, the common change from November to December was a 70-basis-point enhance. The newest end result, subsequently, stood roughly 480 foundation factors under that historic norm.
The December exhibiting adopted a number of months wherein Macau’s gaming income persistently trailed 2019 ranges. November income was 7.8 p.c decrease than in November 2019, whereas October and September lagged by 8.9 p.c and 17.2 p.c, respectively. Deutsche Bank mentioned the December information steered that restoration momentum could also be stabilizing, albeit at a slower tempo than conventional seasonality would counsel.
The financial institution additionally famous that December’s year-on-year development fee fell in need of its latest channel checks, which had indicated an anticipated enhance of between 17 p.c and 22 p.c.
Government Forecasts and Analyst Outlooks
Despite the uneven month-to-month efficiency, the full-year end result exceeded official expectations. In June, the Macau authorities lowered its 2025 gross gaming income forecast by about 5 p.c, revising it to MOP228 billion from an earlier estimate of MOP240 billion. The closing final result surpassed that diminished projection by a large margin.
Looking forward, Macau’s 2026 fiscal price range plan, launched in November, projected full-year on line casino income of MOP236 billion. Addressing lawmakers shortly afterward, Secretary for Economy and Finance Tai Kin Ip described the estimate as “prudent”, citing Macau’s publicity to developments in “international economies”.
Private-sector forecasts for 2026 stay cautiously optimistic. Deutsche Bank expects January gross gaming income of roughly US$2.53 billion, which might signify year-on-year development of 10.9 p.c. For the primary quarter of 2026, the financial institution tasks income of US$8.0 billion, up 10.6 p.c, adopted by full-year income of US$32.8 billion, a rise of 5.8 p.c. Its longer-term estimate for 2027 stands at US$34.4 billion, implying 5.0 p.c development.
Drivers Behind 2025 Performance
Industry commentary highlighted components supporting Macau’s restoration throughout 2025. Seaport Research Partners mentioned latest good points had been largely linked to exercise within the VIP and premium mass segments, supported by sustained advertising and marketing efforts, participant reinvestment, smoother cash flows, and ongoing ease in visa issuance. These parts helped raise annual income regardless of the extra subdued near the yr.
As Macau enters 2026, the file post-pandemic annual end result underscores progress towards restoration, whereas December’s softer exhibiting illustrates the challenges that stay in returning to historic norms.
