By Guneet Mozers.
What the Study Did
Moonbet commissioned a six-month cross-game behavioral evaluation (January–June 2025) to look at how recreation construction, transparency, and perceived management affect risk habits across three of its most-played titles — Blackjack, Crash, and Dice.
A whole of 2,000 grownup contributors had been noticed across anonymized on-chain wagering classes. Each participant performed no less than one of many three video games, with actual stakes tracked by way of provably honest sensible contracts. Data had been drawn from Moonbet’s open-ledger analytics in partnership with exterior behavioral scientists.
Researchers measured:
- Average guess measurement, session length, and in-game volatility publicity
- Win/loss streak persistence and risk-escalation habits
- Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI) and self-control inventories
- Effect of seen vs hidden house-edge shows on decision-making
The objective was to quantify how a lot skill and transparency mitigate risk in comparison with pure-chance titles, and whether or not provable equity alters risk-taking tendencies.
Headline Findings
- Players guess 27% more aggressively in Crash in comparison with Blackjack throughout streak sequences.
- Visible house-edge shows lowered risk escalation by 18% total.
- Blackjack gamers exhibited stronger self-regulation, with a decrease PGSI drift (+4%) than Dice (+12%) and Crash (+15%)
- Players with greater blockchain literacy confirmed 22% smaller variance in common guess measurement, suggesting transparency comprehension stabilizes habits.
- Skill-based notion (as in Blackjack) correlated with longer playtime however smaller incremental losses per session.
Table 1. Cohort Overview by Game Type
|
Game Type |
N |
Avg Age |
Male % |
Mean Sessions / Month |
Avg PGSI Drift |
Transparency Setting (Visible Edge %) |
|
Blackjack (Skill Hybrid) |
700 |
34.1 |
64 % |
18 |
+4 % |
100 % |
|
Crash (Volatility Game) |
650 |
31.7 |
69 % |
23 |
+15 % |
78 % |
|
Dice (Probability Chance) |
650 |
32.4 |
67 % |
21 |
+12 % |
80 % |
Key Insight:
Blackjack attracts barely older and extra analytical gamers who interact in longer classes however preserve management. Crash and Dice skew youthful, male-heavy, and extra volatility-driven. Lower visible-edge percentages correspond to greater PGSI drift, linking transparency directly with behavioral risk.
Table 2. Behavioral Metrics by Transparency Condition
|
Metric |
Hidden Edge UI |
Visible Edge UI |
Δ (Change) |
|
Mean Bet Size ($) |
72 |
59 |
−18 % |
|
Session Length (min) |
31 |
26 |
−16 % |
|
Risk-Escalation Events (per 100 bets) |
9.8 |
7.1 |
−27 % |
|
PGSI Drift (6 months) |
+11 % |
+7 % |
−36 % |
Key Insight:
When the home edge was clearly displayed, gamers constantly guess smaller quantities, ended classes sooner, and lowered hurt development. The findings echo transparency results documented within the Journal of Gambling Studies (2024) and Behavioural Economics Letters (2023).
Behavioral & Psychological Mechanisms
Perceived Skill and the Illusion of Control:
Players in skill-hybrid video games like Blackjack overestimate private affect, resulting in extended play however smaller per-round losses — a phenomenon according to Langer’s illusion-of-control theory (American Psychologist, 1975).
Volatility and Dopamine Anticipation Loops:
Crash gamers exhibited the steepest risk climb throughout “run-up” sequences, according to dopamine-driven reward prediction errors seen in probabilistic duties (Nature Neuroscience, 2022).
Transparency as Cognitive Friction:
Displaying the home edge introduces momentary deliberation that interrupts impulsive cycles. Laboratory parallels seem in Frontiers in Psychology (2024) on friction-based choice slowing.
Table 3. Comparative Loss Ratios and Variance
|
Game Type |
Avg Handle ($) |
RTP (%) |
Variance Index |
Loss Rate (% of Handle) |
|
Blackjack |
980 |
99.3 |
0.82 |
0.7 % |
|
Dice |
1,050 |
98.9 |
1.15 |
1.1 % |
|
Crash |
1,420 |
97.5 |
1.46 |
2.3 % |
Key Insight:
Crash video games produced the best volatility and loss ratio, aligning with participant stories of “chase behavior.” Blackjack’s near-100 % RTP and decrease variance replicate how skill parts cushion losses. These patterns mirror findings in PLOS ONE (2023) on volatility notion in crypto wagering.
Comparative Context: Skill vs Chance Across Studies
|
Reference Study |
Context |
Behavioral Change or Risk |
Comparison to Moonbet Data |
|
Statman et al., Journal of Behavioral Finance (2023) |
Stock merchants underneath market beneficial properties |
+18 % risk taking |
Moonbet Crash +27 % enhance |
|
Delfabbro et al., Journal of Gambling Studies (2022) |
Skill vs chance on line casino video games |
Chance video games double loss frequency |
Moonbet Crash and Dice present comparable 2× sample |
|
Bedder et al., Scientific Reports (2023) |
Time-of-day risk bias |
+40 % risk after midnight |
Consistent with Moonbet’s late-night Crash classes |
Interpretation:
Moonbet’s on-chain dataset reinforces revealed behavioral findings — risk rises most in high-variance, low-transparency environments, and cognitive friction (skill or edge show) tempers loss escalation.
Limitations and Future Directions
- Observational design limits causal inference between transparency and loss outcomes.
- Predominantly male pattern (≈ 68 %) could skew volatility results.
- Next phases will make use of eye-tracking and sentiment proxies to measure consideration drift throughout high-variance play.
- Expanded recreation set (Roulette, Slots) will check generalizability past on-chain hybrids.
Translating Findings into Platform Design: Moonbet’s Operational Response
Moonbet is integrating study insights into ongoing platform updates drawn from DJ.en’s Substack framework on transparency and moral recreation design.
- Return-to-Player (RTP): Moonbet’s in-house titles goal a 99.7 – 100 % RTP, positioning them among the many closest to mathematically honest outcomes recorded within the trade.
- Provable Fairness: Randomness and outcomes are generated by way of on-chain commit-reveal mechanisms and decentralized oracles, permitting gamers to independently confirm every consequence.
- Liquidity Pools: Players can “be the house” by contributing to clear neighborhood liquidity swimming pools with automated risk controls, proportional returns, and full on-chain accounting.
- Explorer-Friendly Verification: Every transaction — from wager to decision — will be traced by Solana explorers, supporting Moonbet’s “truth over trust” precept.
- Security and Governance: The platform is audited pre-launch, with all smart-contract updates time-locked and multi-sig accredited to forestall operator manipulation.
- Responsible Play Tools: Geo-age checks, self-exclusion, deposit limits, and cool-off durations are embedded, whereas each recreation shows reside RTP, volatility bands, and house-edge metrics.
This transparency-first structure types the behavioral-safety baseline for Moonbet’s analysis initiatives — together with the dopamine, sleep, and volatility research — by making certain each intervention and behavioral immediate happens inside a system that’s already open, auditable, and free from “bonus-maze” mechanics.
Key Takeaways
- Risk depth varies sharply by recreation kind — highest in Crash, lowest in Blackjack.
- Transparent RTP shows curb impulsive escalation and session size.
- Younger, crypto-native gamers are most volatility-sensitive.
- On-chain auditability permits behavioral monitoring with out privateness intrusion.
- Moonbet’s open-data method units a precedent for measurable accountable play.
References / Inspired By
- Langer E. (1975). The phantasm of management. American Psychologist.
- Statman M. et al. (2023). Sentiment Spillover and Risk in Financial Markets. Journal of Behavioral Finance.
- Delfabbro P. et al. (2022). Skill vs Chance Effects on Casino Risk. Journal of Gambling Studies.
- Bedder R.L. et al. (2023). Risk Taking for Potential Losses Increases With Time of Day. Scientific Reports (Nature).
- Frontiers in Psychology (2024). Decision Slowing and Friction as Behavioral Intervention.
- PLOS ONE (2023). Volatility Perception in Crypto Gambling Transactions.
One-Sentence Summary
Moonbet’s on-chain information reveals that skill parts in Blackjack cut back risk escalation in comparison with chance-based Crash and Dice video games. At the identical time, clear transparency of home edge constantly lowers impulsive betting and drawback playing indicators. Younger, blockchain-savvy gamers present heightened sensitivity to volatility, underscoring the protecting function of provably honest, clear recreation design in crypto playing.
Disclaimer
Study design, information assortment, and evaluation had been carried out by unbiased behavioral scientists in accordance with ethics-approved protocols. All participant information had been anonymized and aggregated; no personally identifiable info was accessed. Moonbet funded this study and offered platform entry however didn’t affect the modeling, statistical interpretation, or conclusions.
IMAGE CREDIT: Microsoft AI Copilot
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