The Betting and Gaming Council (BGC) has renewed its warning that the UK’s unlawful playing market represents a major and rising danger, rejecting arguments that the difficulty is being overstated based mostly on market share estimates.
BGC chief government Grainne Hurst mentioned the black market “is not a marginal issue,” responding to latest evaluation suggesting unlawful operators account for lower than 10% of UK on-line playing exercise. While she didn’t dispute that determine, she rejected the concept that it reduces the urgency of the difficulty.
“Even if that figure is accepted, it should alarm everyone involved in this debate,” she wrote, arguing that even a comparatively small share of exercise represents significant shopper publicity to unregulated operators.
Research cited within the debate, carried out for the Campaign for Fairer Gambling and revealed by way of Gaming Compliance International, estimates the unlawful sector generated round £800 million in gross playing yield in 2025, in contrast with roughly £8 billion from regulated operators.
Dispute over market measurement and future progress projections
The disagreement within the sector is much less concerning the baseline estimates and extra about what they suggest for coverage. Campaigners arguing that the regulated market retains excessive channelisation charges counsel the UK’s unlawful sector is comparatively restricted in international comparability.
However, Hurst and the BGC argue that any stage of criminality represents a structural danger, notably given projections for future progress. According to NEXT.io, knowledge from H2 Gambling Capital estimates the UK’s unlawful playing market reached £17 billion in stakes in 2025, producing round £685 million in gross playing yield.
The similar modelling suggests this might rise sharply to greater than £33 billion by 2028. Under that state of affairs, practically one-fifth of all on-line betting exercise may happen exterior regulated channels.
Hurst warned this trajectory may considerably improve publicity to unsafe operators, highlighting that coverage selections made right now will affect long-term market construction.
Consumer safety and regulatory strain on the centre of debate
The BGC has framed the difficulty primarily round shopper security and financial impression. Hurst burdened that regulated operators contribute by taxation, employment, and funding for sport, whereas unlawful operators function with out oversight.
“One contributes to society through jobs, tax revenues and support for sport. The other simply extracts money from British consumers while avoiding responsibility,” she wrote.
The organisation additionally factors to proof of gambling-related hurt whereas emphasising that it stays restricted to a small proportion of customers. NHS knowledge from 2016 estimated drawback playing prevalence at 0.7% of adults, a determine the BGC continues to reference in its assessments.
At the identical time, newer Gambling Commission knowledge from 2024 prompt the next price of two.7% based mostly on the Problem Gambling Severity Index, illustrating ongoing disagreement over measurement approaches.
Regulatory our bodies and policymakers proceed to evaluate how to answer the shifting steadiness between licensed and unlicensed playing exercise. The Gambling Commission has acknowledged that precisely measuring the dimensions of the black market stays troublesome on account of inconsistent knowledge and overlapping market elements.
Industry representatives argue that stricter regulation, increased taxation, and tighter affordability measures danger pushing shoppers away from licensed operators. The BGC has particularly raised considerations that intrusive monetary danger assessments and extra compliance measures may speed up migration towards unregulated websites.
The Gambling Commission just lately delayed its evaluate of economic danger assessments after an inconclusive analysis of proof, signalling that additional evaluation continues to be required earlier than selections are made.
The BGC and different trade our bodies argue that limiting the regulated market too closely may unintentionally strengthen unlawful operators by decreasing visibility and pushing demand offshore.
“Banning prop bets does not eliminate the harm,” one trade submission famous in a associated context, reflecting broader considerations that demand would persist even when regulated provide is diminished.
The Gambling Commission and authorities officers, nonetheless, proceed to emphasize shopper safety and the necessity to steadiness market progress with hurt discount.
