07:15 – May 8, 2022
The rain continued to fall in Maryland yesterday and the sector on the Wells Fargo Championship averaged a whopping 3.66 strokes over-par in spherical three.
Only 4 gamers managed to interrupt par on the day and having been matched at a low of 2.56/4, the three-stroke 36-hole chief, Jason Day, shot a really disappointing nine-over par 79.
The Aussie now trails the third-round chief, Keegan Bradley, by seven pictures and he is at present buying and selling at 120.0119/1! Here’s the 54-hole leaderboard with costs to again at 7:10.
Keegan Bradley -8 2.3411/8
Max Homa -6 3.9
Anirban Lahiri -4 19.5
James Hahn -4 27.026/1
Matt Fitzpatrick -3 19.5
Rory McIlroy -2 23.022/1
Cameron Young -2 50.049/1
-2 and 70.069/1 bar
The rain is lastly forecasted to cease at this time but it surely’s nonetheless going to be robust. The wind will proceed to blow (gusting as much as 25mph) and it should be even colder than it has been with the temperature struggling to achieve 10 °C.
With the course comfortable, and the rain gone, the scoring ought to enhance a bit and it is not inconceivable that somebody someway posts an affordable rating from off the tempo.
Looking again at current earlier occasions at TPC Potomac, Francesco Molinari gained from the entrance within the last version of the Quicken Loans National in 2018 however 12 months earlier, each playoff protagonists, the winner Kyle Stanley, and the runner-up, Charles Howell III, trailed by 4 in a tie for seventh and a yr earlier than Andrew Putnam gained the ultimate version of the Mid-Atlantic Championship on the Korn Ferry Tour from the entrance in 2013, David Lingmerth took that title from eighth place and 4 again.
Those stats counsel an off the tempo successful cannot be discounted but when both of the entrance two shoot something round par they will take some catching.
Keegan Bradley’s three-under-par 67 yesterday was an impressive knock within the situations, and he is put himself in an awesome place.
Incredibly, Bradley, who’s weakest a part of his sport is placing, ranks first for each Putting Average and Strokes Gained Putting after three rounds however he is no certainty to maintain that up and kick on for the win.
Bradley has led or been tied for the lead 3 times beforehand on the PGA Tour and he is completed second whenever. All 4 of his PGA Tour titles have been gained from off the tempo.
If Keegan blinks, the 2019 winner, Max Homa, seems to be set to capitalise and he is a superbly truthful value to take action at only a shade beneath 3/1.
Homa gained the Fortinet Championship in September having trailed by two strokes with a spherical to go and he gained the Genesis Invitational final February having trailed by two after 54-holes.
His neat and tidy tee-to-green sport will stand him in nice stead (ranks first for Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green after three rounds) and Keegan’s not the one one placing properly. Homa ranks fourth for Putting Average and fifth for Strokes Gained Putting.
The defending champ, Rory McIlroy, who was matched at a excessive of 400.0399/1 when he regarded like he could not even make the reduce, just isn’t out of the match by any means.
When he gained this occasion for the primary time 12 years in the past (his first PGA Tour title) he made the reduce on the quantity, and he was nonetheless 4 off the lead with a spherical to go however he’ll most likely want a little bit of assist from the entrance two given he trails by six.
The Irishman actually cannot be dominated out, and I can see why he is buying and selling so quick. He trailed by half-a-dozen strokes after three rounds when he gained the Deutsche Bank Championship in 2016 and he gained the BMW PGA Championship on the DP World Tour in 2014 having trailed by seven!
Over on the British Masters, I’ve additionally added Adri Arnaus in a single day at 60.059/1. The Spaniard gained in his homeland final week having trailed by seven so being six adrift will not faze him and he’ll really feel like this can be a free hit.
19:35 – May 7, 2022
Thorbjorn Olesen began the third spherical on the British Masters tardily, bogeying the primary and parring the subsequent three however he obtained his spherical again on observe in spectacular trend with this hole-out eagle two on the par 4 fifth.
? DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) May 7, 2022
The eagle two at 5 did not ignite the Dane and he performed the subsequent 11 holes in one-over-par however a terrific method on the par 5 seventeenth arrange one other eagle, this time from only a few inches, and he then made a fairly good birdie three on the ultra-tough 18th to take a three-stroke lead into Sunday. Here’s the 54-hole leaderboard with costs to again at 19:30.
Thorbjorn Olesen -11 2.447/5
Marcus Armitage -8 7.413/2
Hurly Long -8 14.013/1
Rasmus Hojgaard -7 12.011/1
Fabrizio Zanotti -7 20.019/1
Justin Walters -7 22.021/1
Richie Ramsay -7 26.025/1
Chase Hanna -7 32.031/1
-6 and 50.049/1 bar
As highlighted yesterday, Olesen has had his issues away kind the course lately however that hasn’t stopped him to date this week and if his previous report is something to go by, he’ll take some stopping tomorrow.
Olesen has led by three strokes with a spherical to go 5 instances beforehand and he is solely didn’t convert as soon as.
The stats for three-stroke 54-hole leaders on the DP World Tour additionally counsel he is a good value at about 6/4 given we have seen 133 gamers lead by three since 1996 and 93 went on to win. That’s a 70% strike-rate however the third-round leaders have struggled at this venue…
Paul Casey gained the 2003 Benson and Hedges International Open on the Belfry by 4 strokes, having been tied for the lead after three rounds, however the final 5 course winners have all come from off the tempo – trailing by 4, two, three, 5 and three strokes.
The final participant to steer by three on the DP World Tour was one other Dane, Nicolai Hojgaard on the Ras al Khaimah Championship in February, and after a little bit of a wobble, he went on to win by 4, and of these within the chasing bunch right here, it is Nicolai’s twin, Rasmus, that I like the very best.
Rasmus gained the as soon as solely staged UK Championship right here on the Belfry in 2020 having sat tied for fourth and absolutely 5 off the lead so he ought to have loads of optimistic vibes going into spherical 4.
We’re witnessing all kinds of carnage within the rain on the Wells Fargo Championship, the place the clear third spherical chief, Jason Day, is now chasing after a horrible begin to spherical three. I’ll be again within the morning with a take a look at that one.
13:25 – May 7, 2022
Despite incessant rain on Friday, the Wells Fargo Championship has reached the midway stage however with the downfall forecasted to proceed all day at this time, a suspension of play is very possible. Nevertheless, here is the 36-hole leaderboard with costs to again at 13:20.
Jason Day -10 2.962/1
Max Homa -7 7.413/2
Denny McCarthy -6 19.018/1
Luke List -6 20.019/1
Kurt Kitayama -6 30.029/1
James Hahn -6 44.043/1
Keegan Bradley -5 17.5
Brian Harmen -5 26.025/1
Chad Ramey -5 55.054/1
Matt Fitzpatrick -4 21.020/1
Tyrrell Hatton -4 27.026/1
-4 and 38.037/1 bar
The climate is a major spanner within the works right here. It’s lengthy odds-on that the match can be performed over 72 holes however we won’t assume it is going to be.
TPC Potomac has stood up remarkably properly to the appreciable and steady rainfall to date however there’s solely a lot it might probably take and if the match does get lowered, Day seems to be an enormous value. If it does not, he seems to be a bit quick.
It’s now 4 years for the reason that Australian’s final victory – on this occasion however on the match’s common host course, Quail Hollow – and he is not been good in-contention of late.
Since successful the Players Championship wire-to-wire in 2016, Day has led or co-led at this stage 4 instances and he is completed third, fifth, fifth and tenth. He seems to be opposable.
Max Homa, the shock winner of this occasion a yr after Day, sits alone in second and he is a transparent and current hazard to Day however I’m glad to throw a couple of darts at three gamers at a lot greater costs, safe within the information that there are many unknowns right here and it is not a match to go mad in.
Tyrrell Hatton, a finest priced 22/1 shot on the High Street, seems to be an affordable value at 27.026/1 given he is not frightened to win. He’s alongside Matt Fitzpatrick, who’s but to win on the PGA Tour and but he is a significantly greater value and that does not make a lot sense to me.
I’ve thrown a couple of kilos finally week’s Find me a 100 Winner close to miss, Kurt Kitayama, at 30.029/1, given he did little or no unsuitable in-the-mix final week and I’ve additionally backed one of many 4 former match winners contained in the top-seven and ties – James Hahn at 46.045/1.
Hahn gained the occasion at Quail Hollow in 2016, 12 months earlier than Brian Harman, who sits tied for seventh, took the title on the final event the match was moved away from Quail Hollow. Harman gained the occasion at Eagle Point.
The defending champ, Rory McIlroy, has been a little bit of a flop this week, solely simply making the reduce, however the 4 males to win the occasion earlier than him are all in-contention.
19:20 – May 6, 2022
We’ve reached the midway stage of the British Masters and Germany’s Hurly Long leads after rounds of 67 and 68. Here’s the 36 gap leaderboard on the Belfry with costs to again at 19:10.
Hurly Long -9 8.27/1
Thorbjorn Olesen -8 7.413/2
Richie Ramsay -8 10.09/1
Marcus Kinhult -8 11.010/1
Rasmus Hojgaard -7 7.613/2
Danny Willett -6 13.012/1
Marcus Armitage -6 16.015/1
Justin Walters -6 30.029/1
Sebastian Soderberg -6 36.035/1
-5 and 30.029/1 bar
Last yr’s winner, Richard Bland, was tied for the lead at this stage 12 months in the past however the Belfry is most actually someplace the place the winners can come from off the tempo.
Bland dropped again to tied twelfth and three off the lead in spherical three earlier than rallying to win final yr and Rasmus Hojgaard, who’s in-contention once more right here, gained the UK Championship on the Belfry in 2020 having sat tied for twenty fourth and 7 strokes off the tempo.
The present chief, Long, has gained earlier than. He got here from two strokes adrift with a spherical to go on the Italian Challenge Open Eneos Motor Oil on the Challenge Tour two years in the past however that match was lowered to 54-holes due to rain and on the one two events he is led a match by means of two rounds (each 54-hole occasions on the Pro Golf Tour), he is been overwhelmed.
Winning an occasion of this magnitude is an enormous ask for a reasonably inexperienced 26-year-old and two of the three gamers tied for second make little enchantment both.
Richie Ramsay and Thorbjorn Olesen each have a wealth of expertise and between them they’ve gained eight DP World Tour occasions but it surely’s seven years since Ramsay gained the third of his three titles and Olesen hasn’t gained for 4 years.
Ramsay hasn’t been nice in-contention for some time now and he seems to be like one to oppose. He sat tied for third (trailing by one and two strokes respectively) on the Kenya Open and the Canary Islands Championship in March and May final yr however completed forty seventh and twenty third.
I’d belief the extra prolific Olesen extra and I’m by no means shocked to see him favorite however he is had travails away from the sport, when he was formally charged with sexual assault, being drunk on an plane and customary assault, following an incident that occurred on the finish of July 2019.
Olesen was suspended by the Tour briefly and it wasn’t till December final yr that he was finally cleared of all costs.
All that might be behind him now, however I’d be shocked if he is fairly able to win once more simply but. He began slowly at this time (performed the primary 13 holes in one-over-par earlier than a late rally) and he dropped away tamely final week after sitting ninth and simply three off the lead (completed thirty third overwhelmed by ten) at midway.
The 2019 winner, Marcus Kinhult, has thrown his hat within the ring with a quick end to spherical two, enjoying the final 4 holes in four-under-par to get alongside Olesen and Ramsay however the one I like at this stage is the Tournament Host, Danny Willett.
The 2016 US Masters champ was matched at a excessive of 250.0249/1 after he’d performed the primary eight holes of the match in three-over-par, however he is been in tremendous fettle since.
After recovering properly to put up a one-over-par opening 73 yesterday, he flew up the leaderboard this morning earlier than bogeying the ninth (his last gap of the spherical) to put up a seven-under-par 65.
Willett has been pretty ruthless on the DP World Tour of late, successful on three of the final 5 events that he is been inside three of the lead at this stage since November 2018.
Over on the Wells Fargo Championship, the first-round chief, Jason Day, has eased additional clear with a three-under-par 67 in spherical two this morning however I’ll take a more in-depth take a look at that one tomorrow.
Hopefully they’re going to get to the midway stage at this time, however water is beginning to pool on the fairways because the rain continues to tumble and a suspension of play needs to be a robust chance.
09:35 – May 6, 2022
The first spherical of the British Masters ended with Ryan Fox and Thorbjorn Olesen tied on the high on six-under-par after the pair had opened with spectacular rounds of 66 across the Belfry.
Fox has already started his second spherical and I’ll be again later at this time or very first thing within the morning with a take a look at the occasion on the midway stage as I’m glad to sit down on my arms for now.
Last yr’s winner, Richard Bland, sat third, trailing by two, after the opening spherical however a gradual begin could be overcome right here.
Rasmus Hojgaard trailed by 9 after spherical one when he gained the UK Championship right here in 2020 and three of the 4 course winners earlier than him have been no less than 4 pictures off the lead after the opening day’s play.
As a rule of thumb, with the wind normally calmer within the mornings and with the programs at their pristine finest, the day one early starters are likely to outscore the afternoon wave however that hasn’t been the case at both occasion this week.
There wasn’t a lot of a draw bias on the Belfry yesterday with the afternoon starters simply shading it, averaging 72.69 in contrast with 73.23 averaged by their morning counterparts, however the afternoon starters on the Wells Fargo Championship averaged greater than a stroke lower than the morning wave (1.09) in Maryland.
To the frustration of these of us that adopted Dave Tindall in on 80/1 poke, Denny McCarthy, within the First-Round chief market, who shot five-under-par within the morning, day one afternoon starters, Jason Day (-7) and Joel Dahmen (-6), sit first and second after spherical one with 5 gamers tied for third on five-under-par and there are as many as 9 males tied for eighth on -4.
We haven’t got a lot to go on as regards to the in-running stats at this yr’s Wells Fargo Championship. As highlighted in the preview, with the occasion’s common host course, Quail Hollow, being ready for the Presidents Cup in September, the match has switched to TPC Potomac.
It’s a cracking course and I’m having fun with watching the golf there, however we do not have an abundance after all kind to judge. What we do have factors to a affected person method…
Francesco Molinari sat tenth and 4 off the lead earlier than hacking up right here within the last version of the Quicken Loans National in 2018 and the two playoff protagonists a yr earlier, Kyle Stanley and Charles Howell III, got here from miles again. The pair trailed by 5 and 6 strokes respectively after spherical one, however they have been ten adrift at midway!
Rich Beem gained the Kemper Open wire-to-wire right here in 1999 however Stuart Appleby gained that occasion 12 months earlier having sat thirty sixth and 6 off the lead after spherical one, the 2 winners earlier than Appleby sat outdoors the top-ten and three off the tempo, Frank Lickliter trailed by 4 after the opening spherical when successful that occasion in 2001, and Michael Putnam gained the final version of the Mid-Atlantic Championship on the Korn Ferry Tour right here, having been tied for forty eighth and 6 off the lead after the primary spherical in 2013, so we now have quite a few examples of gradual starters claiming the spoils.
Jason Day is the one man buying and selling at a single-figure value this morning however the pre-event favorite and defending champ, Rory McIlroy, was matched at a low of 4.67/2 yesterday when he began the occasion properly, racing to four-under-par by means of six holes however he ended the day on -3 in an enormous tie for seventeenth alongside 21 others together with one in all my Find Me a 100 Winner picks, Chase Seiffert, and Sergio Garcia, who I count on to wrestle at this time.
The as soon as very fashionable Spaniard has been shedding his lustre for a couple of years now and yesterday’s stroppy outburst, by which he very a lot appeared to trace at a transfer to the brand new Saudi Tour, when an official started timing his ball search on the par 5 tenth early, went down like a lead balloon with nearly everyone.
Sergio Garcia, annoyed with what he thought was the early begin of the clock to search for a misplaced ball, seemingly telling a guidelines official…
…I cant wait to depart this tour
…cant wait to get outta right here
…only a couple extra weeks till I haven’t got to take care of you any extra pic.twitter.com/k1qRRYbmsF
? The Fried Egg (@the_fried_egg) May 5, 2022
British Masters Pre-Event Selections:
Nicolai Hojgaard @ 40.039/1
Adrian Otaegui @ 50.049/1
Danny Willett @ 13.5
Rasmus Hojgaard @ 13.012/1
Wells Fargo Championship Pre-Event Selection:
Tony Finau @ 28.027/1
Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
2 pts Sung Kang @ 170.0169/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
1 pt Chase Seiffert @ 400.0399/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
½ pt David Lingmerth @ 880.0879/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
2 pts Guido Migliozzi @ 170.0169/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
*You can observe me on Twitter @SteveThePunter