What’s the stage like?
At 190km, with three, small, categorised climbs, it is a stage that’s laborious to categorise. On paper it appears like one for the sprinters, however with loads of different lumps and bumps exterior of these categorised climbs, together with two within the final 15km, the out-and-out speedsters may not be shut sufficient to contest the marginally descending dash to the road.
The most attention-grabbing level within the stage could effectively come on a quick hill within the city of Occhetti, round 5km from the end. Short it could be, however with gradients of round 12%, the punchier riders within the peloton may simply depart the dash groups languishing and unable to get well. Helping any late breakaway effort will probably be a number of sharp turns contained in the final 3km, breaking the rhythm of any pursuing pack.
Who are the favourites?
Whenever punch is required, Peter Sagan (6.005/1) will make the shortlist, and he will probably be particularly suited by the ambiguities of the ultimate kilometres right here. He’s been on good kind on this Giro thus far, acquitting himself effectively within the time trial and being shut within the intermediate and closing sprints on Stage 2. His drawback, as at all times, will probably be his marked standing: the times when Sagan may catch the peloton unexpectedly are a decade previous.
Winner of Stage 2 – nudging out Giacomo Nizzolo, our 20.0019/1 advice – Tim Merlier (8.007/1) appears to be the sprinter in kind, and his run within the one-day classics earlier within the 12 months recommend that a number of steep ramps close to the end will maintain few fears for him.
The early markets have Caleb Ewan (9.008/1) and Giacomo Nizzolo (15.0014/1) distinguished, however I’d need greater odds to seek out out if they’ll have the flexibility to deal with this unusual parcours.
Who are the almost certainly outsiders?
Diego Ulissi (30.0029/1) gained two levels finally 12 months’s Giro, together with Stage 13, which is analogous to the check the riders face right here. He has bought off to a gradual begin this season, however started to indicate kind within the Tour de Romandie the place he completed near Sagan on a few levels. Given the odds, and the probability that he can have tried to peak for his dwelling race, he appears a lovely prospect at massive odds.
If on the lookout for a punt at actually massive odds, then David Dekker (40.0039/1) and Matej Mohoric (50.0049/1) would possibly trigger a shock. Dekker turned some heads when profitable the factors competitors on the UAE Tour, ending second on two levels, and appears in first rate kind on the Giro, while Mohoric has beforehand gained levels on the Vuelta and Giro and was shut up earlier this season on Stage 7 of the Volta Ciclista a Catalunya.
What impact will it have on the general markets?
It will probably be one other day for the General Classification contenders to keep away from bother, slightly than being known as on for any Pink Jersey heroics, though given there are 5 hills of notice within the second half of the stage, it will be no shock if one among them finds bother and loses a while.
In the Mountains Classification, anticipate Vincenzo Albanese to attempt to to be within the breakaway, to deliver extra consideration to his sponsors, and anticipate Sagan to be excessive up for the intermediate sprints as he tries to win the Points Classification that he missed out on final 12 months.
*Odds appropriate on the time of writing