Tony Calvin’s three to back at Cheltenham on Friday

One of the optimistic features of ITV Racing’s protection this 12 months has been their willingness to showcase the so-called lesser tracks, and so they embrace Bangor on Friday.

However, their handicap hurdle at 14:05 has attracted a mere 4 runners, that includes an odds-on favorite, which is about as unenticing because it will get for punters. And it is not even essentially the most invaluable contest on the cardboard.

So I instructed on the nice ship Twitter on Wednesday morning that they need to think about liaising with the course to present the 14-runner conditional and novice riders’ arms and heels race as a substitute – it may additionally add an academic ingredient to the programme, too – however, alas no, my free recommendation has been ignored (they’ve most likely muted me, like everybody else).

So it’s Cheltenham all the way in which on Friday for this column.

We will cope with the 5 ITV races – although I’ll come back to the 17-runner handicap hurdle at 12:40 if costs are up in time (it’s only on Racing TV) – beginning with the 2m4f127yd mares’ handicap chase at 13:15.

I like two within the race, and the obvious one is the favorite Agent Valdez.

Even along with her 7lb penalty she is 2lb well-in right here after her Leicester win final week, and whether or not or not you make her a wager at 4/1+ on the change right here relies upon solely on the way you assess that victory.

Some might take the view {that a} 28-length stroll (it was extra of a grind) in a race the place solely two completed will not be essentially the most strong form-line you possibly can want for – particularly because the runner-up had been hammered in all of his different begins this season – and the mare’s leaping had not been blemish-free on her earlier two chase outings.

But I’d be inclined to be fairly optimistic, which is most in contrast to me. Especially when it comes to assessing the probabilities of a favorite.

It may effectively be that this Irish point-to-point winner is now warming to her activity over fences, and the time of the win at Leicester definitely offers loads of substance to the shape.

The official going description at Leicester says it was good to comfortable, however that’s nonsense if you happen to ask Timeform, as they made it heavy.

So if the rain arrives in Cheltenham with any nice gusto from Thursday night onwards (the quantities fluctuate on completely different websites however we may stand up to 8mm by racing, hopefully much less with my Saturday ante-post wager in thoughts) that might be no concern for her at all.

When I mentioned I preferred two within the race I really meant three – the opposite pair are Martila and Stop Talking – and you may make a convincing case for the trio at their costs.

Martila seemed like a extra outstanding experience would see her within the winners’ enclosure for a lot of the way in which at Warwick final time – she traded at 1.528/15 in working – just for her to get picked up by a pair of hold-up performers within the straight.

A replica of that run offers her sound claims right here however I’d be apprehensive about her on stamina grounds if this grew to become a check in worsening floor over this prolonged 2m4f.

Stop Talking likes a good floor ideally however she should not have any issues with the journey if it does flip comfortable (it’s good to comfortable at the time of publishing), and she or he ran a strong race over hurdles final time, having earlier formed very effectively when second over fences within the comfortable at Ayr on her return from a protracted break on her return in October, a race during which she ran into an improver and completed miles away from the third.

She went up 5lb, however I can reside with that, particularly because the winner was solely simply touched off subsequent time and the third was within the means of working an excellent race when coming down at the final at Newcastle just lately.

I’ve a variety of time for the Jennie Candlish yard, and the first-time cheekpieces is an fascinating angle for her, too. Very fascinating in truth if you delve into the stats.

Candlish is 5 from 26 since 2016 with this headgear possibility, however an much more spectacular three from 9 since 2019, with Zolfo an excellent instance of how cheekpieces can markedly enhance her horses. That will do for me, particularly as Stop Talking has typically seemed like a horse that would do with some assist up high.

All issues thought-about, I’m joyful to facet with Agent Valdez at 5.59/2 or greater. Not my regular type of value, however the play seems justified, and a good saver on Stop Talking at 13.012/1 or above is beneficial.

In reality, Stop Talking is the marginally the higher wager at these costs.

The re-scheduled Peterborough Chase at 13:50 has seen Mister Fisher and Clondaw Castle enticed away from the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup on Saturday.

If you fancy Mister Fisher – and it’s straightforward to on his fourth within the Marsh final season – then I’d wait till close to the off on Friday earlier than backing him, as connections are satisfied he wants respectable floor, and so they would not have been disabused from that opinion after his reappearance run.

Put merely although, I’m joyful to let this race move by with no monetary curiosity – I’m additionally unsure the place the tempo will come from, maybe Glen Forsa or Fanion D’Estruval – as that is a really closely-knit Grade 2 on official figures, and the betting displays that.

It is 4/1+ the sector on the change, and with good purpose. Tres difficult.

The 3m2f handicap chase at 14:25 has minimize up to simply seven runners and this was one other trappy small-field race to remedy.

I believe the Irish may land with this Court Maid, who races off a mark of 148 along with her 5lb penalty, and that makes her 4lb well-in if you happen to imagine the Irish handicapper.

She ran away with the Porterstown over 3m5f at Fairyhouse final time and is unexposed over journeys in extra of 3m – in that indisputable fact that run was her first past three miles – however, once more, all of it comes down to value.

And as I believe 5 of her six rivals has a good shot at her (and the one I discounted, Steely Addition, may but bounce back in first-time headgear) I can depart her alone at across the 2/1 mark (the early 10/3 on Wednesday was hoovered up, and that cemented the no-bet).

There might be extra likelihood of me waking up with an Afro tomorrow morning than placing up a horse for the Cross Country Chase at 15:00 – there is not even a French runner to default to after Easysland’s withdrawal – however Festival third Out Sam may very well be an each-way participant at round 8s, I assume.

Total guess would most likely be extra correct although, and people are two very costly phrases in betting parlance.

I’ll allow you to crack on, on your individual, right here, however I do have to admit that I’d have severely thought-about Vivas at 16/1+ had the bottom been a contact higher. Or if I knew it might not be too dangerous. One to revisit on Friday afternoon.

He travelled rather well into the race when fifth to Kingswell Theatre over these fences final time earlier than weakening late on, and a mark of 130 – he was 15lb out of the handicap and so successfully ran off 145 final time – offers him each likelihood of an upset.

If there is no such thing as a considerable rain by race-time, then I could be tempted to take a pop at Vivas, and I used to be not at all shocked to see the 25s go along with the Betfair Sportsbook on Wednesday night time, and the 20s within the market quickly after.

If the bottom is driving comfortable or worse by the point it comes to the closing 3m handicap hurdle at 15:35 then I’ve seen worse 16/1+ possibilities than Agrapart.

His Cheltenham type figures on comfortable or heavy learn 121 and he’s back to a mark of 145, having completed an excellent fourth off 150 below right this moment’s 5lb claimer Chester Williams in that invaluable Heroes handicap at Sandown back in February,

And he does enhance together with his racing, so at least his run within the French Champion Hurdle in October (the place he had little likelihood, and ran accordingly) would have hopefully served his function from a health perspective.

I used to be fairly shocked to clock he was nonetheless solely 9 – it’s getting on for almost 5 years since he gained his Betfair Hurdle in 2016 – and I might be backing him on Friday if the course will get a good slurp of rain. But I’m reluctant to tip him right here and now.

Rain is also the important thing to Goodbye Dancer returning to his greatest too, for all he has type on good and fast floor within the locker for earlier trainers.

He has proven little or no on good entering into three runs this time period and is 2lb out of the handicap right here with the highest two standing their floor.

But, despite the fact that he’s 2lb improper, he can nonetheless race off only a 1lb larger mark than when successful this contest final season (off 124) and my robust hunch is he would have adopted up off 134 had he not fallen at the final right here within the comfortable on New Year’s Day.

He might not all the time discover as a lot as anticipated off the bridle however he was cantering when coming down there (he traded at a low of 1.331/3) and if he runs to that degree of type then he may take a variety of whacking.

The indisputable fact that he carries simply 10st may very well be vital, as effectively. Paddy Brennan can do the burden and the horse is not the most important, so the featherweight may very well be an enormous plus (he was carrying 10st and was 4lb out of the handicap when falling right here on NYD).

Back him at 10.09/1 or greater.

You might want to wait till seeing precisely what the going is like on Friday earlier than punting each Agrapart and Goodbye Dancer, however I’m joyful to facet with the latter now, and the previous tomorrow if we get loads of rain. I believe Agrapart may very well be extra ground-dependent of the 2.

I’m not going mad on the stakes entrance although as it is a very aggressive race – I’ll actually have a saver on Dell’ Arca in reality, for all I used to be barely upset by his newest run at Newbury – however they’re my two towards the sector.

As for the aforementioned 2m1f handicap hurdle at 12:40 I’ve no argument with Greatwood Hurdle third Tegerek heading the market (the 13/2 within the market was taken on Wednesday night time). He is 3lb larger right here however there ought to be extra to come from him.

But there are any variety of improvers in right here, with Sarasota Star 5lb well-in after escaping a penalty for his win in a conditionals’ race at Carlisle final time, and a few lurkers, too.

Torcello undoubtedly matches the latter invoice, as he’s rated 93 on the Flat simply 118 right here (in addition to being owned by a punter) and is 20/1+, however I made a decision this was one other race during which I may stroll on by.

So the three bets for me, however perhaps Vivas or Agrapart tomorrow relying on what the climate does. I’ll replace on Twitter on that entrance.