To say that it could be probably the most eagerly-awaited spectacle of the jumps season could also be pushing it – nicely, it might be – however even this outdated curmudgeon is impatient to see Champ run over 2m for the primary time since his bumper days within the Betfair Game Spirit Chase at Newbury at 15:00.
To say that is an unorthodox prep for the Gold Cup – which I imagine continues to be the plan, win or lose – could be one thing of an understatement.
I could not dream of backing the RSA winner over this form of journey at 7/2+, particularly given it should be very uncertain how his often slopping leaping will maintain up at 2m-pace, however it will likely be fascinating to see how he fares in the event that they go from the entrance on him (there’s a lack of tempo elsewhere, so they may nicely hearth him out).
An equally fascinating facet observe might be how he fares within the betting. He was as quick as 15/8 on Tuesday within the ante-post market, nevertheless it would not shock me if he went off at 15/2.
If he does, then punters can have a choice to make. At which level do your put your doubts apart? Every horse has a value at which they develop into backable.
It might be not a race I might be making a bet in – if the sooner races present the bottom is just not too unhealthy then I could have a couple of quid on Sceau Royal if his value holds at round 7/2 and 4/1- however I’m shocking myself considerably in recommending Cepage at 21.020/1 or greater within the Betfair Denman Chase at 14:25.
Ground and journey may go well with Betfair Denman Chase outsider
I might have liked to have put him up each-way with eight runners, however aunties and uncles and all that and Dashel Drasher was at all times going to Ascot. So this can be a sever-runner race. Regardless of the numbers, I feel he has a profitable shot and am prepared to play at the costs.
Nothing on this race scares me, and the 2 type horses, Clan Des Obeaux and Lostintranslation, each carry 6lb penalties and are unattractively priced to my eye.
Cepage carries a 4lb burden himself, so he wants to enhance/or the above pair to underperform once more, however I feel a constructive experience from Charlie Deutsch may pay dividends right here. He might need to be content material to sit down off Secret Investor, however I need to see a outstanding experience.
I do not know what went mistaken with him first time up within the Caspian Caviar, however he was very weak within the betting that day and was pulled up, however he was again to type underneath a giant weight at Chepstow final time.
His handicap type is not one million miles off the principals and I reckon this 2m7f journey may actually go well with this course winner on floor that appears like being higher than was forecast earlier within the week. It is presently good to tender (tender in locations)
He didn’t get house over 3m1f within the Ultima however he solely cried sufficient late on after buying and selling quick within the run (2.546/4) and his time figures don’t mark him up as a 20/1+ poke right here.
Two towards the sector that may hopefully relish the 3m
The Sportsbook are paying 5 locations within the Betfair Weighed In Podcast Weekly Handicap Hurdle – out each Monday, lads and lasses – however I’m going to take two towards the sector, win-only, on the trade within the 3m contest at 13:50.
I’m at all times acutely aware of a bias in direction of tipping horses I’ve sided with earlier than, however I could not resist the claims of Dhowin right here at 15.014/1 or greater. Unfortunately, nor may Sportsbook bettors as he was backed into 10s from 14s there, in order that scuppered the each-way play.
I assumed he would have gone very shut underneath a extra aggressive experience when third at Ascot in December nevertheless it was his fifth over 2m5f within the Lanzarote final time which hammered house the actual fact he’s a three-miler.
He was underneath the pump from begin to end there, and did remarkably nicely to complete so shut given he was extra of a candidate to be pulled up at varied levels. He is nonetheless lightly-raced and I can actually see 3m round right here, with a protracted straight, enjoying to his staying strengths.
Polish is the outsider of the sector, however I feel he’s price a saver at 34.033/1 or greater.
He completed behind Dhowin when ninth within the Lanzarote when he once more made errors. His leaping might want to enhance however hopefully the step again as much as 3m will permit him extra time to measure his hurdles, and to be extra fluent.
Certainly, a mark of 130 seems to be workable on his Grade 2 Cheltenham third in November and a copy of his strong-finishing fourth over 2m5f at Kempton final season may see him trigger an upset.
Happy to stay with Mack within the Betfair Hurdle
The Sportsbook are paying seven places on the 24-runner Betfair Hurdle and I’m joyful sufficient with my win-only 20/1 ante-post guess on Mack The Man.
My causes for siding with him stay unchanged. So I’ll minimize and paste it the case for a second time.
He is formally the worst handicapped horse within the race, as he has a 5lb penalty for a Wincanton win final time for which he went up solely 2lb. So he’s 3lb badly-in.
But that was in all probability a mandatory stepping stone – at the time he wouldn’t have been sure of a spot on this line-up at all given the Wincanton win got here off a lowly 127 – and one which got here after two unsuccessful chase begins.
Despite being mistaken at the weights, he’s solely 2lb greater than when a 15/2 probability on this race final season, when being introduced down at the final.
Sure, he was two or three lengths off the leaders however he wasn’t out of it at all as he finds (as he confirmed when beating Protektorat and Song For Someone at Sandown in December 2019, and that type is not wanting too shabby now) and I can see him approaching a ton for that Wincanton win.
Not that it was a poor win as such – the time was first rate – however I’m guessing it was a way to an finish.
He seems to be a very first rate each-way guess at 20s, seven locations, to me however I might moderately have one other horse operating for me moderately than entering into once more.
Flat type provides us wonderful claims of a Victory
Cadzand and Soaring Glory are the rightful market leaders, and so they have the right profile for the same old winner of this race, and I used to be very tempted by Milkwood, who seems to be to have been put away with this race in thoughts after a luckless third right here in November (except he has had a difficulty), however On To Victory was my second stab.
I wish to reap the benefits of the seven locations however, at the time of writing (and he might drift, so hold ’em peeled), he’s solely 14/1 on the fixed-odds entrance and 21.020/1 on the exchange so I’ve to play win-only on the latter.
He has little probability on his Wincanton novice hurdle win final time however that got here on floor that was apparently much more tiring than the official good to tender instructed, and it additionally got here solely a fortnight after a fall at Kempton, a race by which he appeared set to offer some sensible novices a battle when coming down when difficult at the second-last.
He is barely pretty handicapped on what he has executed over hurdles (and the 7yo has had solely six runs in that sphere) however it’s his Flat type which signifies he might be on a profitable mark right here.
He is rated 105 on the Flat after a Betfair November Handicap win in November (23 runners), and if he can switch that skill to hurdles, then a mark of 129 provides him wonderful claims. A 24b differential between Flat and Jumps may really make him a blot.
It is also that this massive discipline and powerful tempo will convey out the best of him on this sphere, because it did at Doncaster in November, and I’m paying to search out out.
That’s yer lot on the ITV races at Newbury, however there are additionally a few races at Market Rasen on the UK entrance and Navan’s Boyne Hurdle on the field.
Handicapper has given Dan a proper probability
I just like the look of Langer Dan at 11.010/1 within the 2m handicap hurdle at 15:15 at the Rasen.
You need to be cautious of the lightly-raced pair of Gipsey De Choisel and Ajero, however so are the layers, and Langer Dan has higher claims than his odds recommend.
He is 4lb decrease than when sixth within the Boodles simply three begins in the past, and he has had a wind op since a under par run on unhealthy floor at Plumpton final time. I feel the handicapper has given him a proper probability, particularly with the bottom higher than anticipated right here too (tender, good to tender in locations).
Darasso might be aggressive in Navan function
The Sportsbook’s opening 12/1 about Darasso has gone and I’m frightened a couple of non-runner scuppering the dead-eight within the Boyne Hurdle, so I’m going to place the horse up win-only at 12.011/1 on the trade within the 14:47.
The very first thing to say about this race is that the bottom might be completely hock-deep if the assembly survives, and my Racing Only Bettor Podcast colleagues inform me Navan is as unhealthy because it will get in Ireland with regards to heavy floor.
That will go well with Darasso (who would have run at Gowran Park on Saturday has that assembly not bitten the mud) as he’s a grinder within the worst of circumstances, and I just like the angle of him stepping down in journey after his run over 3m final time.
He arguably put up his best chase efficiency when profitable at this monitor two years in the past, and a copy of his premier hurdles type would make him very aggressive at these weights.
Good luck on “Betfair Super Sunday”.
I’ve put up much more choices than I normally do, however relaxation assured I’m backing all of them myself. That a lot you may depend on.