I’ve seen some individuals comment there isn’t any such factor as a no-bet race at Cheltenham and, fairly frankly, that’s as huge a nonsense because the irresponsible “certainty” discuss in Festival preview-land.
Sure, all of us wish to have an curiosity in each race (and I’d have a boot in that camp too if the worth is true), but when there’s one factor you need to maintain subsequent week it’s your self-discipline.
If doubtful, stroll away.
Remember, these Cheltenham markets have been shaped and matured over the previous few months and, with the fields smaller than in earlier years, there are prone to be much less ricks and enticing bets as a consequence.
I sincerely hope that evaluation is effectively large of the mark (learn on…) however, as ever, the overwhelming recommendation needs to be to by no means pressure a guess for the sake of getting one.
The Responsible Gambling message merely cannot have a week off for Cheltenham.
Cheekpieces a concern for a Soaring begin in Supreme
Anyway, overly-pompous sermon over – I sometimes have these moments, so apologies – let’s dive into the Supreme at 13:20.
I’m not going to labour the purpose about this being a disappointing turn-out, with simply eight runners, largely as a result of I’m delighted for my private ante-post positions on Soaring Glory and Irascible!
We all know that Appreciate It brings one of the best type to the social gathering because it stands after his brace of Grade 1 wins and his bumper win in Ireland final season suggests he might have the pace to win right here on respectable floor – we glance set to start out on good to tender – however I do not suppose there’s an excessive amount of juice in his value of round 6/4 on the change.
I can not have second favorite Metier on the value, so I do suppose Soaring Glory and Irascible are the 2 to pay attention on exterior on the jolly, for all I’m not going to place both of them up right here.
Irascible is extra of a guess-up, as his 20/1+ value suggests, however I feel the gray has not been ridden to greatest benefit in each of his latest begins behind Appreciate It (overwhelmed 9 lengths on every event) and my intestine really feel is that he’s a huge improver.
I used to be all set to stay Soaring Glory up right here, till I noticed he was declared in first-time cheekpieces on Sunday morning.
Now, Jonjo O’Neill has a good document when utilizing this headgear initially – Cloth Cap is the obvious and up to date instance – however I simply do not get the reasoning right here. Soaring Glory is a strong-travelling, easy horse who actually impressed me within the Betfair Hurdle, so that’s a puzzling determination to those eyes.
I feel he has a higher probability than his present change value of round 13/2 suggests – his time at Newbury was wonderful and lots have used that handicap as a stepping stone to large performances on this Grade 1, together with O’Neill – however the cheekpieces are an pointless and unwelcome query mark to me. He might effectively resent them within the warmth of battle.
No guess for me within the opener then, and I’m more than pleased to let Shishkin strut his stuff within the Arkle at 13:55 with out my cash.
I used to be really in opposition to him when Energumene was nonetheless within the race, however his harm has robbed the race of any betting curiosity to me, particularly with no each-way 1,2,3 betting with a mere six runners.
Happy days available within the Ultima
Regular readers will know that I’m not one to go along with the bleedin’ apparent and so favourites should not my factor, so I used to be horrified to see that I fancied the entire entrance three within the betting within the Ultima at 14:30.
Happygolucky, Aye Right and One For The Team are the trio within the query, and the first-named holds excellent claims.
Basically, he has every little thing you might be searching for, and I feel he would win this race a couple of time in 5. So I’m backing him at 5.14/1 and larger on the change.
Much to my shock. In truth, I really feel a little soiled placing him up.
We have not seen him since he received right here in December however that’s no downside. Connections put him away with this race in thoughts afterwards, and so they know they’ve a horse who excels when contemporary.
He received first time up in 2019 and 2020 and he completed fourth within the Martin Pipe right here final season after a three-month break.
The floor shall be excellent for him, a mark of 147 seems very workable for this lightly-raced performer and I’m advised his pace figures this season put him close to the highest of that individual tree in right here. And the Kim Bailey yard is in actually good nick, too.
If he jumps spherical with any fluency, he actually must be going very shut.
Aye Right and One For The Team are huge each-way gamers too, however I’m going to counsel getting with Cepage in one in every of two methods.
Given his suspect stamina, you may go down the back-to-lay angle on the change and again him at 20.019/1 or larger, and look to put him again at round 3/1 in working.
Or you may again him 16/1 each-way, five places, with the Betfair Sportsbook.
I’ll go along with the latter choice.
He hasn’t been his traditional dependable self this season and he went up 4lb for his Chepstow win in January, which makes his process right here off 158 appreciable.
So there are doubts exterior of the journey, too.
But I feel he could possibly be price chancing on the anticipated good to tender going, as he traded at 2.546/4 in working when tanking into this race final season (he was nonetheless main leaping 2 out) earlier than his stamina ran out within the testing circumstances (wanting again on the video he additionally sweated up badly there, thought I do not know if that is a regular trait).
I assumed he ran a curious race over an prolonged 2m7f within the Denman Chase at Newbury final time, staying on late after shedding his place, and I’m hoping he can final residence right here on the respectable floor.
I do not fancy many exterior of the highest three, so I’m pleased to take my possibilities on a horse with a string of excellent efforts round right here.
Last yr’s runner-up can go shut once more in Champion Hurdle
As the betting suggests, Honeysuckle is the most certainly winner of the Champion Hurdle however I can not resist an each-way guess on final yr’s runner-up Sharjah at 12/1, four places, with the Sportsbook.
This a one top-class 2m hurdler when getting his favoured respectable floor and I’m prepared to forgive him his poor run behind Honeysuckle within the Irish Champion Hurdle final time. That was the second yr in a row he has bombed out in that race, and apparently he’s not at residence on the extra galloping exterior observe that contest is run on.
He traded at 1.664/6 in working when second to Epatante on this race final yr and I reckon the anticipated higher floor and stronger tempo this yr will actually go well with this four-time Grade 1 winner.
He shall be onerous to kick out of the primary 4 on that run, and his Matheson Hurdle defeat of Aspire Tower in December additionally reads very effectively, too.
Of course that 7lb mares allowance might show his undoing as soon as once more, so I’m additionally going to counsel backing him at 5/1 each-way, three locations, with out Honeysuckle and Epatante, with the Betfair Sportsbook (market will be discovered within the “Betting Without” on the Sportsbook). 4/1 or larger could be acceptable if the 5s goes.
Hoping for Tears of pleasure after Mares’ Hurdle
I’d favour Roksana over Concertista on the costs within the Mares’ Hurdle at 15:40 however I used to be going to sit down this one out till I noticed the “without” markets as soon as once more.
I do suppose the above pair will struggle out the end, however Black Tears pursuits me at 4/1 with these two taken out of the equation, and I’m going to again and tip her each-way, three locations, too.
Dame De Compagnie is the 15/8 favorite on this line however Black Tears got here out of the higher horse on the weights once they stuffed the primary two locations within the Coral Cup right here final season.
And whereas the Nicky Henderson mare comes right here on the again of an aborted chase marketing campaign, Black Tears arrives right here after a good win in a quick time at Punchestown at first of the month (although the runner-up did nothing for that type at Limerick on Sunday).
We do not lose a lot on the place half if she finishes within the first 5 (assuming the market leaders do likewise) and I reckon we could possibly be gathering on the win half at 4/1, anyway. Any 3/1+ could be tremendous too.
Public and Park spherical off a busy punting day
He ran market chief Houx Gris to a neck at Auteuil in October and is 3lb higher off right here, and recorded a truthful time in successful at Market Rasen final time.
He could be very lightly-raced after simply the 4 hurdle begins, and hopefully there’s a lot extra to come back from him. There will have to be, thoughts you.
He is a few factors larger win-only on the change however the security internet of six locations is price having.
I used to be going to go away the National Hunt Chase at 16:50 alone given the defection of Royale Pagaille has really made the race stronger in competitors phrases. It is a very deep race now.
But I could not reside with myself if Nestor Park received with out my tipping him (and I’ve backed him myself, too) so I’m going to counsel supporting him at 50.049/1 or larger on the change.
He has masses to search out on type and Luca Morgan cannot declare his 7lb, however this horse has been crying out for a step up in journey on his final two begins, and I reckon he might massively outrun his odds.
I toyed with placing him up 40/1 each-way, 4 locations, however I feel win-only is the best way to go right here given the depth of the race.
Good luck. That was a couple extra bets than I used to be anticipating, in reality.