Tony Calvin takes on Haggas’ favourite two-handed at York

Like most I think, I’m glad to disregard the six-runner ITV filler from Newton Abbot, and focus on the 5 York races, which I’ll soak up chronological order.

The opener is a competitive 11-runner 1m3f188yd handicap at 13:50 however that did not cease the Betfair Sportsbook putting in William Haggas’ Gaassee as only a 9/4 probability as he bids for a four-timer.

He holds a Group 2 Hardwicke entry and will simply be a minimize above this area off a mark of 94 given his attractive, unexposed profile. His Kempton win in December has labored out very nicely, too. But you will not discover me backing these sorts at skinny costs too typically, if at all, nonetheless a lot you need to absolutely respect his possibilities.

You solely need to hark again to final 12 months’s race, which Haggas took with a really related 7/2 probability within the three-length winner Ilaraab, working in the identical colors, to inform you as a lot.

The strong handicapper in opposition to him is Sam Cooke, and this one truly traded at 2.1211/10 in working when overwhelmed 10 ½ lengths by Ilaraab on this contest final 12 months. He was far too free that day although, and paid for it shut dwelling after nonetheless being in entrance approaching the ultimate furlong pole.

He completed the season in nice fashion however the issue with him is two-fold: he races off a career-high mark right here and his coach Ralph Beckett has but to actually hit his stride this season.

I’m going to take this favourite on two-handed, with On To Victory and Graphite win-only, at odds of 21.020/1 and 26.025/1 respectively on the Exchange.

If you need to again them win-only on the Sportsbook and get crammed instantly they’re 20/1 and 25/1 there as nicely, so make your alternative.

Unlike Beckett, Alan King is in first rate kind below each codes, and he saddled a 20/1 winner at Chester final week.

His On To Victory has inquiries to reply right here as he has not raced since Boxing Day over jumps and I presume he has had a setback since, however hopefully the Henry Ponsonby syndicate have not entered him solely for the doorway and O &T tickets right here and he’s primed for this.

The horse ran a good third over course and distance in August 2020 after the same absence from a National Hunt marketing campaign after which he went on to win the November handicap (off simply 1lb greater mark than this) and run a cracker to complete second to Hukum in a Listed race at Goodwood in May 2021.

He could be very pretty handicapped on that run and hopefully Kings Prince and Zabeel Champion will inject the tempo into the race he wants.

It is at the moment good at York, which might be okay for him, however a little bit of ease could be higher, and hopefully they’ll get greater than the spits and spots they’ve forecast on the positioning I exploit.

Graphite seems overpriced

Terry Kent hasn’t had a Flat winner since February, which is not an apparent pointer to Graphite’s possibilities, however he would not have an enormous string and he had a 28/1 probability overwhelmed simply ¾ size at Ascot on Friday and three of his different six runners of late have been positioned.

So I’d say he’s truly in truthful kind.

Graphite was an honest Group 3-level horse when skilled in France and took a few runs to return to himself final season. But he received a Shergar Cup handicap at Ascot off only a 3lb decrease mark than this below as we speak’s jockey David Egan (on board for the primary time since right here) and ended off final season with sixth at 40/1 within the Doncaster Cup.

He handles fast floor in addition to mushy, and he merely seems overpriced from a kind and time perspective.

Wager on an enormous run from Mr Wagyu

I feel we’ve all discovered by now that any confidence is sorely misplaced when tipping and betting in dash handicaps however certainly everything points to a big run from Mr Wagyu in the 14:25.

Back him at 12.011/1 or greater to small stakes. His coach John Quinn is in very vigorous kind too, and was among the many winners once more on Monday.

To begin with, his course and distance kind figures of 171246 are usually not too shabby when you find yourself dealing in double-digit handicaps more often than not, and he’s already 1lb decrease than when third within the Ayr Gold Cup simply 4 begins in the past.

But the fascinating facet to his possibilities right here, apart that course kind and a good handicap mark, is his second-time out report in latest seasons, and he undoubtedly formed nicely when a friendless 40/1 probability on his return at Newmarket at the beginning of the month.

In 2020, he received second time up, with only a six-day hole in between these races, and final 12 months he was overwhelmed only a size when turning out once more simply 10 days after his marketing campaign pipe-opener.

His Newmarket run was simply 12 days in the past and hopefully this has been the plan for some time. The Sportsbook are 10/1, five places, if you wish to again him each-way however I recommend win-only on this 22-strong handicap.

I almost went with a saver on Wobwobwob at 18.017/1 or greater as he received nicely over 7f at this assembly final season and he formed nicely for a 7lb claimer on his return over 6f at Thirsk final month. However, he’s drawn one on the far aspect, and that carries with an apparent, and appreciable, doable draw back.

Garrus has received all of it

The 6f Group 2 sprint at 15:00 (I’ll go away others to remark on the nonsense across the Duke Of York race title) isn’t usually a race that I might become involved in, however certainly Garrus is a fair each-way bet at 12/1 with the Sportsbook.

I’m tipping and backing him anyway. To put it merely, he simply seems very strong.

He has received at the observe, he has his situations, he arrives right here after having been overwhelmed only a short-head within the Group 3 Abernant final time, and he has little to seek out with the shape horses, two of whom (Dragon Symbol and Minzaal) are making their reappearances.

The first-time blinkers are an fascinating addition too, as he plucked defeat out of the jaws of victory at Newmarket within the centre of the observe (traded at 1.061/18), and he seems a sturdy wager to hit the body at least.

I’ve had a nibble on Beckett’s course winner Luna Dorada at 50s for the Oaks however I think they may all be combating for second place behind Emily Upjohn in the Musidora at 15:35.

Let’s watch, not wager.

Back Mojomaker to cross stamina take a look at

Gosden additionally provides a shortie within the form of the unbeaten Samburu at 13/8 within the 16:10, however I’m throwing just a few kilos within the course of Mojomaker every means at 8s.

David Loughnane is one other coach going nicely at current and Mojomaker ran a cracker for him over 6f at Doncaster final time, his first run after a wind op, when happening by a mere nostril, going on strongly at the road.

The winner was finishing a hat-trick there, the third went into the race on the again of a five-length victory and the fourth ran nicely in defeat at Ascot final week, so I feel he stays nicely handicapped on a 3lb greater mark.

He ran nicely at this course in a helpful gross sales race right here final season and the step again as much as 7f seems value chancing after the Donny run, for all he does need to conclusively show he stays this journey. The stamina is the doubt (although the pedigree offers you hope, if not essentially his sole run over 7f at Southwell), so I thought-about win-only, however I would like the locations on my aspect right here.

Good luck.

Profit and Loss (from March 26)

Staked: 69pts

Returns: 164pts

P/L: +95pts

Previous (April 14 2021 to March 25 2022)

P/L: + 183.1