Brighton v Leeds United
Saturday 1st May, kick-off 15:00
Live on Prime Video through BT TV
Potter’s Brighton secure for now
Brighton final tasted victory in the Premier League again in March courtesy of a 3-0 win towards Newcastle. And in seventeenth place in the desk, they’re fortunate there are a number of groups far worse. They appear to have preserved their keep in the prime flight for one more yr.
I as soon as remarked to an Elvis Presley fan that I believed he was a bit of, properly, overrated. It went down badly as you’d anticipate, however there’s one thing in the overrated stakes with Graham Potter. His staff play good soccer, and I love a membership that sticks with their supervisor and a philosophy in these set off pleased occasions. But Brighton do not win many matches they usually do not rating many objectives. Yet he is by no means a supervisor underneath strain.
Their failures towards the groups in the backside 4 has maybe been their primary cardinal sin, though six goalless attracts and simply two victories at the Amex all season hardly have helped their trigger.
The latest 1-0 defeat to Sheffield United was a snapshot of every part Brighton do; they fail to take their probabilities.
Leeds evolving in response to Bielsa
Much like Florrie Forde was the darling of Music Hall theatre, Marcelo Bielsa is the darling of Yorkshire. As traditional, one thing attention-grabbing got here out of his press convention this week, with the Argentine apologising for his lack of English. I’m unsure the Leeds’ followers care.
A brand new contract extension is reportedly on its manner following the latest phrases of Andrea Radrizzani. That’s good timing too, with Bielsa saying just lately following the 0-0 with Manchester United that his staff are evolving as a Premier League drive. That draw was the end result of a outstanding six-game unbeaten run that noticed them take factors off Chelsea, Manchester City and Liverpool.
In phrases of staff information, captain Liam Cooper serves the ultimate recreation of his three-match suspension. Rafhinha and Rodrigo will not be in the squad.
With my less-than-glowing intro, I can hardly tip up Brighton at 2.285/4. Once once more, the hosts are the fallacious value. Of course, they will go on and win this recreation comfortably, however for a staff with simply two victories at dwelling all season, backing at odds of 6/5 over a interval is not going to make a revenue. I feel they’re an overrated staff, and the market usually sees them that manner.
There are loads of higher 6/5 pictures round elsewhere.
Leeds are priced at 3.412/5, and that brings into play the Double Chance or Draw No Bet alternatives. But I fear barely that the guests have a poor file at Brighton as they’ve misplaced their final 4 by an combination of 9-0.
I like the concept of backing the draw right here at the greatest value of all at 3.55. Brighton have been held to a stalemate in extra Premier League matches this season than some other staff (13). And with Leeds unbeaten in six with three attracts, that appears the most stable choice. Especially if we’ve got a extra “balanced” efficiency from Leeds like we noticed towards Manchester United – quite than simply try to steamroller opponents.
The Under 2.5 Goals value shocked me at 1.9210/11, as I believed it might be a bit of shorter. Perhaps the layers are cautious of Leeds, however Brighton’s knack of a goalless draw makes that interesting, so too does their file of protecting clear sheets in 5 of their final seven matches at the Amex.
The hosts are additionally underperforming towards their xG. They have the greatest adverse between objectives scored (33) and objectives anticipated (46.9). They have not scored in their final three matches regardless of registering 51 pictures both.
Backing the Under 1.5 is one thing I take into account with a possible low-scoring recreation, though there may be usually little margin for error. So I’d quite become involved with the 0-0 Correct Score at 12.5, and that offers us an choice to commerce to get some of the stake again at round 20 minutes in doubtlessly tight opening.
Patrick Bamford proved a success by knocking off Bielsa’s glasses in coaching this week. His accuracy is unnerving, particularly away from dwelling as 9 of his 14 Premier League objectives this season have come away from Elland Road. Combining him to attain and the draw on the Bet Builder through the Sportsbook pays out practically 10/1.
You can comply with me on Twitter @DudmanAl