What’s the stage like?
It’s an homage to the current rise of Slovenian biking, with a looped, 147km course seeing the peloton border hop and sort out the Category Four Gornje Cerovo thrice. It’s a day that may swimsuit the punchier, one-day specialists, with an uncategorised climb 3km out – which has gradients of as much as 14% in locations – more likely to be a launch pad for a stage-winning transfer.
It’s a day that may favour the breakaway, however given how sparse alternatives are on this yr’s Giro for the puncheurs – the explosive riders who’re most at residence on quick, steep finishes – I think about their groups are going to be choosy about who’s allowed to get in such a break. So the break would possibly go, however anticipate it to be under-resourced and given a very quick leash.
Who are the favourites?
Peter Sagan (3.505/2) already has a blueprint for successful this, as a result of his Bora-Hansgrohe workforce executed precisely what might be wanted on Stage 10: get on the entrance early, make it onerous for all of the quick males, after which let Sagan free to complete it off on that remaining climb. Sagan might be eager to realize as many factors as potential right here within the Points Classification earlier than the race heads again into the excessive mountains, and appears worth for the win. The threat – as at all times with Sagan – is that he’s closely marked. What he demonstrated on Stage 10, although, was that being marked issues little for those who journey everybody off your wheel.
Who are the almost certainly outsiders?
Diego Ulissi (25.0024/1) has received eight levels on the Giro in his profession thus far, and most of them like this one. Expect him to make his transfer on one of many final two climbs, figuring out that he might want to drop Sagan earlier than the closing levels to have a probability of victory. If that 3km rise had the end line at its high, I might fancy him right here, however the flat run-in means he might want to make a transfer of spectacular daring to engineer a win. He managed that on Stage 13 on the Giro final yr, but when Sagan has the legs right here, he will not enable him that probability this time round.
What impact will it have on the general markets?
Given the early aggression that has been proven by the likes of Egan Bernal within the first fortnight of the Giro, it is onerous to low cost any stage as a possible “quiet” General Classification day, however after the Zoncolan dramas of Stage 14, and the height-topping peaks to come back on Stage 16, it is possible that these with designs on the Pink Jersey will decide to journey defensively.
Geoffrey Bouchard has been quiet in current days, with indicators that Bauke Mollema may need plans to focus on the Mountains Classification. It’s nonetheless a very tough to name, although, and positively not one to get entangled with: with large factors obtainable at summit finishes, it is totally potential that a General Classification contender will win the King of the Mountains by default.
*Odds appropriate on the time of writing