What’s the stage like?
Given the backdrop of the Alps, it appears considerably perverse that this stage is sort of completely flat, with solely a single Category 4 climb that can determine the primary wearer of the Mountains Classification jersey.
It’s quick, too, at solely 179km, with a easy end. The solely doubtless complication for the sprinters – and it’ll, virtually inevitably, be a sprinter who wins this – is a nasty right-hander simply over 1km out from the end.
Who are the favourites?
Caleb Ewan (3.259/4), the winner of two levels eventually yr’s Tour de France, has been some of the constant sprinters of latest years, and it is no shock to see him heading the market right here. He’s had a tendency to at all times discover one or two opponents too good this season, although, along with his sole win coming on Stage 7 of the UAE Tour. He’s in all probability the almost certainly winner, however his odds do not signify a lot worth.
Dylan Groenewegen (4.507/2) has served a hellish nine-month suspension after inflicting Fabio Jakobsen to crash on the Tour of Poland in 2020, and makes his reappearance right here on the Giro. It’s exhausting to know what sort of type he brings into the race, or what shenanigans is perhaps dished up by his rivals to settle scores (he actually will not be gifted something), so it is in all probability smart to disregard him for now, regardless of his expertise.
A much less acquainted title to many will likely be Tim Merlier (5.004/1), who has tended to ply his commerce in lower-level races for a lot of his profession. He posted three wins within the sprinters’ one-day classics in March, although, and his cyclo-cross ruggedness will imply a bunch dash in a Grand Tour will maintain few fears for him. A doubt is his type at Tirreno-Adriatico, and whether or not he has the uncooked pace to combine it with the easiest is questionable.
Who are the almost certainly outsiders?
Peter Sagan (14.0013/1) has been a bit grumpy in interviews of late, after his group boss advised he was coming to the top of his profession. And the grumpiness appears truthful sufficient: in any case, he is posted two wins already this season and has been within the combine on loads of different events. He would doubtless desire the end to be a bit stiffer right here, however he cannot be discounted at big odds.
Fernando Gaviria (16.0015/1) appeared like he would develop into the dominant sprinter of his era when taking 4 levels on the 2017 Giro, however while he is gone on to win on the high degree once more – most notably twice on the Tour de France in 2018 – he tends to fill peripheral placings when racing the perfect, getting shut however often not being adequate to take the win.
Giacomo Nizzolo (20.0019/1) appears to principally play a related function to Gaviria. His European Championship win in 2020 apart, he has a behavior of discovering somebody to beat him. Despite this reservation, although, he arguably brings essentially the most constant type into the race and might be the best value for a speculative punt earlier than we all know extra concerning the relative type of the quick males.
If on the lookout for a big-priced outsider to trigger an upset, Matteo Moschetti (50.0049/1) is perhaps the decision. He received a minor one-day race in March and, at solely 24, presumably has the scope to enhance.
What impact will it have on the general markets?
Probably little or no: that is a uncommon day on this Giro for the sprinters. The first week of any Grand Tour is tense, and there’s at all times an elevated danger of crashes, so the General Classification contenders will likely be enthusiastic about staying out of hassle and little else.
*Odds appropriate on the time of writing