Machac can be competiive against Berrettini

Wednesday’s matches noticed the likes of Novak Djokovic, Dominic Thiem and Alexander Zverev progress to spherical three, though we did see the exit of Stan Wawrinka – the Swiss veteran misplaced in 5 to Marton Fucsovics. Another five-set epic noticed Nick Kyrgios edge previous Ugo Humbert, saving two match factors in set 4. Kyrgios now faces Dominic Thiem on Friday, which ought to be a cracking match.

Thursday’s schedule sees various theoretical mismatches, with many favourites priced under the 1.3030/100 mark and a quantity round 1.101/10 or under, together with Andrey Rublev, Daniil Medvedev, Alex De Minaur and Rafa Nadal. Defeat for any of those gamers would be a significant shock.

Matteo Berrettini is also priced round this bracket, with the Italian at the moment buying and selling at 1.101/10 for his match with the Czech qualifier, Tomas Machac.

While Machac is ranked simply inside the highest 200, he solely turned 20 a number of months in the past and appears a participant of actual potential shifting ahead.

Machac reeled off 9 straight video games within the final two units en path to a retirement win over Mario Vilella Martinez in spherical one, and breezed via qualifiers in straight units, reinforcing the upward curve which he displayed in 2020. Towards the tip of final season, Machac received to the ultimate of the Bratislava Challenger indoors, and in addition gained in Koblenz in February as properly earlier than the tour paused.

The benchmark of Machac’s success has been his serve, which he held virtually 90% of the time on onerous courts (indoor and out of doors mixed) at Challenger stage in 2020. These numbers are extraordinarily uncommon to see at that stage, significantly at the side of breaking round 25% of the time, and will translate to some good upside on the primary tour as he develops his profession.

Given these serve numbers but heavy underdog standing, it would not be shocking if Machac is able to holding this fairly respectable. Machac +7.5 video games is priced across the 1.9010/11 mark and this appears to be like affordable sufficient to me.

There’s an fascinating match between two bettering gamers as properly, with Casper Ruud a slight 1.804/5 favourite over Tommy Paul. On onerous court docket, I even have the chances not removed from the opposite approach round, with Ruud nonetheless to show a lot on the floor after breaking via initially on clay. Feliciano Lopez actually struggled previous wild card Li Tu in spherical one and I feel that is influencing his value at 4.30100/30 against Lorenzo Sonego. The 39-year-old actually is not near his earlier greatest however opponent Sonego additionally has mediocre onerous court docket numbers and I’m unsure the Italian ought to be a heavy favorite even against a declining Lopez.

At the opposite finish of the age curve, it’ll be fascinating to see if 17-year-old Carlos Alcaraz Garfia can proceed his progress. The Spaniard, who has very excessive long-term potential, is accurately priced as market favorite at 1.584/7 over Mikael Ymer, and the market seems fairly properly dialled into that top potential of Garfia.

***

Follow Dan on Twitter @TennisRatings