With no PGA Tour motion this week, we’re left with solely the European Tour’s Alfred Dunhill Championship in South Africa to check in the hunt for a big-priced winner or market mover and traditionally, we might have been up in opposition to it.
Home favourites, Ernie Els, Branden Grace, Brandon Stone and Charl Schwartzel (4 instances!) have all received the occasion at odds far beneath 100/1 however there was an enormous change to the course in 2017 (detailed in the preview) and the 2 winners since have each been outsiders.
Since the course was toughened up, David Lipsky has received having been matched at a excessive of 340.0339/1 earlier than the off and Pablo Larrazabal took the title 12 months in the past, having been matched at 80.079/1. At each editions, various large outsiders have been positioned and one other monster-priced winner is completely believable. I’ve picked out a pair and there is one honorary point out…
Ride Horsey to revenue
As highlighted in the preview, the course is a really completely different beast to the one which noticed the likes of Schwartzel, Grace and Stone gallop to victory with 20-under-par and decrease profitable scores. Last 12 months’s champ, Pablo Larrazabal, completed the occasion at -8 and it is extra about saving pars than banging in birdies now.
With that in thoughts, it is maybe not shocking to see that type on the European Tour’s hardest venue, Valderrama, seems to correlate properly and as many as 4 gamers that completed contained in the top-ten and ties on the Andalucía Masters there in September completed contained in the top-11 right here final December – Will Besseling, Justin Harding, Connor Syme and Johannes Veerman.
What’s actually placing about that crossover is the calibre of the gamers which have fared nicely on the two venues and the way seldomly they carry out that nicely.
Those two top-seven finishes are two of solely 4 top-tens achieved by Harding within the final 12 months and Besseling’s third in Spain is one among solely two top-tens since he was third right here final 12 months. Since ending eleventh right here, Syme has had an honest 2020 and his eighth-placed end at Valderrama is one 5 top-tens (from 18 begins) and Veerman hasn’t fared too unhealthy both. His tenth in Spain was one among three top-tens this 12 months (from 15 begins), however it seems like a great angle in and one I’ve thought-about with each picks.
And first up is David Horsey, who’s missed lower final trip is most deceptive.
Horsey, who was tied for tenth at Valderrama, has been in first rate type this 12 months and along with that effort, he is completed 14th within the British Masters, sixth on the Celtic Classic, 14th within the Scottish Open and thirteenth on the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth. There have been a number of poor efforts thrown in as nicely however his missed lower in Cyprus final trip wasn’t one among them. He sat tied for fifth and simply two off the lead after rounds of 67 and 65 however missed out on Sunday’s Showdown after a 70 on Saturday noticed him miss the second lower after the scores have been all reset after spherical two.
This is Horsey’s first go to to Leopard Creek since 2012 and I think it is the course adjustments which have lured him again.
Green up with Brown
Steven Brown completed alongside Horsey in Spain and he completed ninth within the Cyprus Showdown after a lacklustre Sunday however he seems over-priced at 180.0179/1 given it is not rather more than a 12 months since he received the Portugal Masters and that he is gained greater than six strokes placing in every of his final two begins.
A disappointing weekend on the Joburg Open noticed him slip to 61st final week (having sat tied for twenty first after spherical two) however this seems like it could show to be a extra appropriate check and he shot three stage par 72s and a 73 when he performed right here for the one and solely time two years in the past. He solely completed forty seventh so it wasn’t a massively encouraging debut however it’s price highlighting how poorly he was enjoying on the time as he missed his subsequent seven cuts.
Keep a watch on Kawamura
Although he missed the lower on the Joburg, I assumed Japan’s Masahiro Kawamura seemed a terrific match and he’d have been a decide had his value not moved into 95.094/1. He was 18th right here on debut, eighth at Valderrama in September and he was additionally second within the Indian Open final 12 months. That event was staged on the DLF Golf and Country Club and there are a selection of type strains suggesting that monitor my correlate properly too.
*You can observe me on Twitter @SteveThePunter