Main Bet: Joakim Lagergren each-way @ 70/1
This week, for the fourth time within the post-lockdown period, the European Tour is holding back-to-back tournaments on the identical course.
It first occurred final summer time in Wales, Cyprus and Kenya adopted, now it occurs as soon as extra in Tenerife at Golf Costa Adeje and what have we realized from the primary three situations of those repeat occasions?
At Celtic Manor climate circumstances impacted, with the second week colder and wetter, consequently the profitable rating was ten pictures greater. Even so, the runner-up Sami Valimaki and 54-hole chief Sebastian Soderberg had completed prime 10 the week earlier than.
In Cyprus there was a format change, from pure strokeplay to the novel showdown idea. There was an identical sample, nonetheless: Callum Shinkwin completed first-fourth, Robert MacIntyre third-first, whereas Valimaki and Jamie Donaldson contended in each weeks.
And on safari in Kenya? Justin Harding was the winner in week one then the three-shot 54-hole chief in week two (though his eighth spherical noticed him end T14th so perhaps beware fatigue), Sam Horsfield went eighth-third and Jacques Kruyswijk fifth-fifth.
You may simply argue that none of this was particularly shocking and but a few of these gamers talked about remained engaging costs within the second week.
Valimaki in Wales, for instance, was 66/1 and Soderberg 100/1 (certainly, he was tipped on this column). MacIntyre remained an identical worth regardless of proving he appreciated the course (mid 20s), Horsfield additionally continued to be rated within the 20s and Kruyswijk was out there at 50/1.
I’m taking that as my main prepare of thought this week: in search of gamers who carried out properly final time, however stay engaging every manner choices.
First up is Sweden’s Joakim Lagergren, winner of the 2018 Sicilian Open and somebody who has began to seem like he is prepared to say a second European Tour title sooner slightly than later.
He’s by no means been a wholly constant type, however he is at all times loved taking part in in windy circumstances and by the ocean so ought to the breezes rise to something just like the very blustery wind that has sometimes buffeted the course during the last fortnight (the forecast says it would), he’d not be too despondent.
His win in Sicily was on a resort course by the ocean and it additionally required him to go low, posting a 3rd spherical 63. More just lately, he is landed tied third on the Portugal Masters and tied eighth on the Golf in Dubai Championship – extra breezy resort golf (he is additionally the winner of a mini tour occasion on a Spanish resort course in Marbella).
Last week he carded 67-69-66-67 to complete T18th and it was notably notable that his putter warmed up on the weekend: he ranked fifth for Strokes Gained Putting in spherical three and first within the remaining lap (he additionally leads the Putts per Round averages for the season).
I additionally like his excellence on par-3s.
Last week’s winner Dean Burmester ranks second on this subject for the brief holes (there are six of them at Adeje) and Garrick Higgo, who contended all week, ranks third.
Who’s forward of them? Lagergren, who has wanted, on common, lower than three pictures per brief holes because the begin of the 2020 season.
Next Best: Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez each-way @ 50/1
There was one thing splendidly, aristocratically seventeenth century in regards to the leaderboard after 54 holes final week.
Nicolai Von Delinghausen led, chased by Alfredo Garcia-Heredia and Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez. The trio learn a bit of just like the signatories of the 1687 Treaty of Cadiz – the Prussian Foreign Minister and his Spanish counterparts perhaps.
More significantly, for Garcia Rodriguez who ended the week tied eighth, it was a additional trace that he is attending to grips with the enterprise of contending at this degree.
He’s been round for a decade now, however solely final 12 months did he escape of the second and third tier.
Interestingly, maybe, his first sniff of a lead at these decrease ranges got here at Tecina Golf, on the Canary Island of La Gomera which can be seen throughout the ocean from Adeje.
Garcia Rodriguez was tied ninth there in 2012, his first reduce made at Challenge Tour degree, and he spent the primary 36 holes inside the highest two.
He’s been a winner on the hilly, resort-style Cabanillas and the open Miglianico on the Alps Tour, whereas the closest he is come to victory on the second tier was when second at Morgado within the 2019 Open de Portugal – extra Iberian resort golf.
He’s performed properly, if inconsistently, during the last 12 months or so, choosing up 5 prime 10s. I like that he confirmed he may go low (opening with a 62) when T10th at Hanbury Manor, that he hung round all weekend when tied sixth at Dom Pedro, and final week he opened with a 66 and added a 64 on Saturday.
Sunday’s 70 would possibly nag at him, but it surely may additionally put the bit between his tooth.
Final Bet: Louis De Jager each-way @ 50/1
Will the Canary Island Swing witness a South African hat trick? It would not be a giant shock and Louis De Jager would possibly lastly get his breakthrough past Sunshine Tour degree.
The 34-year-old is a five-time winner on his residence circuit, however for a protracted whereas he struggled on the European Tour.
All that started to alter in late 2019 with a second tied fourth at Heritage within the Mauritius Open (a course that’s not with out some parallels to Adeje – resort in design, undulating terrain, sea breezes).
During final summer time’s UK Swing he picked up a few prime 20s, then briefly contended in Italy and was barely extra concerned in Cyprus.
In 2021 he is made 5 of six cuts and was T12th final week with the fourth greatest Strokes Gained Tee to Green stats, solely bettered by the winner, runner-up and tied third.
He’ll have to up his placing sport, however he is properly able to it, as evidenced by topping the Strokes Gained Putting rankings within the Qatar Masters.
He’s additionally one other whose par-3 numbers are robust – and so, too, his document on the par-5s (of which there are 5).