Greg Raymer: How The Anchoring Bias Affects Us At The Poker Table

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I hope you favored my first column on cognitive biases on The Self-Serving Bias, and my comply with up on The Curse Of Knowledge.

Digging additional into some widespread biases that influence poker, let’s study The Anchoring Bias and The Availability Heuristic.

The Anchoring Bias is our tendency to rely too closely on the primary piece of knowledge that involves thoughts or presents itself when making a call.

The Availability Heuristic is comparable, and entails over emphasizing the primary examples that come to thoughts when making a judgment.

Whenever any person makes a poker determination (or any determination, for that matter), they all the time have a purpose. Frequently, they also have a smart purpose. The query will not be, “Did they have a good reason?,” however “Did they fairly evaluate all available information before making their final decision?”

All too usually, we go together with the primary purpose that involves thoughts, and whichever determination it helps. How many instances have we seen a participant make a bluff on the river, realizing, as we watched, that it was a hopeless bluff? When they get referred to as and lose, you usually hear them say, “Well, bluffing was the only way I could win.” Every time I’ve heard that, they have been appropriate. Each time, their hand was so weak, they did successfully have zero probability of profitable at showdown.

However, the truth that their assertion was appropriate doesn’t imply they need to have tried a bluff. They had purpose to bluff, but that purpose is sort of irrelevant in terms of deciding whether or not to bluff.

The factor to consider when trying a bluff is not only are you able to win in case you test? Rather, it is best to contemplate what number of chips you might be risking, what number of chips you’ll win, and the way usually you estimate the opponent will fold.

If I’m enjoying the board, and can by no means win at showdown, it’s nonetheless foolish to bluff if the opponent is sort of all the time going to name. While bluffing was my solely probability to win, it was additionally my solely probability to lose extra chips on this hand.

You see related errors being made in each side of poker. You get to the river, guess with the second nut straight, and get raised. Your first thought is, “The only hand that can beat my A-4 on this board is 6-4, and this guy is too tight to ever play 6-4, so I’m going to reraise.”

That is a sound and robust argument for that call. However, if the opponent is just too tight to play 6-4, isn’t he additionally too tight to lift on the river with out the nuts? Something doesn’t match, and it is advisable look nearer.

You want to think about the whole lot else you already know about this participant. Was he within the large blind? How a lot looser does he play preflop in that place? How many gamers have been already in? Maybe he would play 6-4, from the large blind, for a 2.5x increase preflop, with three different gamers having already referred to as. Was there a flush draw on the flop? Maybe he referred to as your c-bet on the flop as a result of he had each a gutshot and a flush draw? And if he doesn’t have 6-4, what else might he have proper now?

If his vary at this level is 6-4 or a bluff, then a reraise is a mistake. If he has 6-4, your reraise will value you extra. If he’s bluffing, he’ll fold to your reraise, and you’ll win the identical quantity as in case you had simply referred to as.

There is all the time extra to think about. If you restrict your self to the very first thing that involves thoughts, you’ll by no means be capable of play very effectively. If you over-generalize an opponent, you’ll draw too many flawed conclusions about how they play. You want to essentially dig into all the main points of every hand and examine all these particulars to how they’ve performed earlier arms.

The trick isn’t to simply take a look at the primary thought, and even so as to add only one extra thought. The trick is to think about the whole lot attainable, whereas not taking extreme time to make every determination. Considering the whole lot will end in paralysis by evaluation. The actual ability goes previous the primary thought, however not going to date that you simply waste time. Once you grasp that, you then’re really on the best path to changing into a terrific participant.

Have enjoyable, and Play Smart! ♠

Greg Raymer is the 2004 World Series of Poker primary occasion champion, winner of quite a few main titles, and has greater than $7 million in earnings. He is the writer of FossilMan’s Winning Tournament Strategies, obtainable from D&B Publishing, Amazon, and different retailers. He is sponsored by Blue Shark Optics, YouStake, and ShareMyPair. To contact Greg please tweet @FossilMan or visit his website.