Everton v Aston Villa
Saturday May 1 20:00
Live on BT Sport
Home kind an enormous concern for the Toffees
After a run of six video games in all competitions with out success, a 1-0 win at Arsenal final weekend, their first away victory towards the Gunners in 25 years, has rekindled Everton’s faint hopes of Champions League qualification.
With simply six Premier League video games remaining, the Toffees are six factors adrift of Chelsea in fourth, however they’ve a sport in hand on all the opposite groups vying for a top-four slot. Having been matched at a excessive of 150.0149/1 and a low of 3.02/1, Everton are now 26.025/1 chances to finish inside the top-four however that does not look beneficiant.
Carlos Ancelotti declared that “Everton are finally back” after their hard-fought success on the Emirates however it was a sport that would have gone both manner and the Toffees profitable away from residence does not come as any kind of a shock.
They misplaced away to Chelsea originally of March however that was their solely Premier League defeat away from residence since they misplaced to Newcastle 2-1 manner again on November 1.
Since that defeat to the Magpies away, Everton have misplaced to Manchester United, Leeds, West Ham, Newcastle, Fulham, Manchester City and Burnley at residence. Their residence and away kind is like chalk and cheese.
Sitting fifth within the Premier League Away desk, with 33 factors from 16 video games, Everton’s kind on the highway is way superior to their kind at Goodison Park and the Toffees sit fifteenth within the Premier League Home desk having received simply 19 factors.
Incredibly, given how a lot of a fortress Goodison Park has been over time, Ancelotti’s group have misplaced extra video games at residence than they’ve received this season (7-6) and so they do not maintain any attraction at only a shade of odds-against within the outright market.
Apart from Leicester, who appear to be marching serenely on to Europe, all of the top-four contenders have been struggling of late and I do not see any cause why Everton will not really feel the strain on Saturday.
Grealish an enormous loss for the Villans
Rumours are rife that Aston Villa’s talisman, Jack Grealish, shall be on his manner in the summertime and that is an enormous concern for Villa followers.
If anybody had any doubt in anyway about Grealish’s significance within the facet, they solely want to have a look at their kind since he picked up a shin harm in coaching in early February.
They’ve received simply two of the ten Premier League video games performed with out him since and so they’ve scored solely ten targets however Manager, Dean Smith, dismisses claims that Villa’s hunch in kind is as a result of midfield maestro’s absence.
“The offensive side is what has dropped off, probably since the COVID break (in January) to be honest, even with Jack in the team.”
But Smith is assured his facet can finish the season on a excessive, with or with out their star man.
“I have said many times my teams normally finish seasons well and I expect them to do so again this season.”
They definitely deserved higher final weekend after they wanted a stoppage time Keinan Davis strike simply to earn a 2-2 draw at residence to West Brom, however it was a sport through which they have been far the higher facet, because the xG of three.17 – 1.77 demonstrates.
Like the hosts, Villa have performed 16 Premier League video games at residence and 16 away to date this season and though it isn’t anyplace close to as stark as Everton’s disparity, Villa’s away kind is best than their residence kind.
The Villans have received 24 factors on the highway and simply 21 at Villa Park. They’ve already received seven instances away from residence this season and that is extra instances than Everton have received at residence.
Everton should be taken on
Looking on the facet markets, Yes is odds-on within the Both teams to Score market and I do not see any worth in No. Both groups have scored in 62% of Everton’s residence video games this season and though solely 38% of Villa’s away video games have seen either side discover the online, each groups have scored in every of their final 4 Premier League video games.
The Over/Under 2.5 Goals market is a tough one to name however I’d simply favour Under at odds-against. So far this season, 50% of Everton’s residence video games have seen at the very least three targets scored however there have been three or extra scored in solely seven of Villa’s 16 away.
The targets have been drying up throughout the Premier League all through March, with solely 36% of video games producing three or extra targets however that modified considerably in April with the share capturing as much as 66% so it is arduous to gauge.
The absence of Grealish is a big hindrance for Villa however Everton have received a median of simply 1.19 factors per sport at Goodison Park this season, they’ve received solely one among their final 9 residence league video games and so they should be opposed.
Draw or Away is a shade of odds-on within the Double Chance market and Villa to win is sort of 4.03/1 within the outright market however the guess I like is Aston Villa within the Draw no Bet market at virtually 2/1.