Moutinho to see yellow in Black Country derby
Wolves vs West Brom
Goalscorer: Leander Dendoncker to attain anytime @ 11/2
Wolves have discovered life robust since shedding talismanic striker Raul Jimenez to harm, struggling to search out somebody to fill his goalscoring boots. Youngster Fabio Silva has been taking part in extra usually, however hasn’t been getting on the tip of possibilities (0.13 non-pen xG/avg match), and the truth is, it’s midfielder Leander Dendoncker who leads this present Wolves crop in non-pen xG/avg match with 0.24. He is but to attain this season, however has been getting on the tip of possibilities (3.05 xG), averaging 1.6 photographs per avg match and 0.51 photographs heading in the right direction per avg match. He affords a risk from late runs into the field in addition to set items, so the 11/2 about him to attain seems a properly priced angle.
Carded: Joao Moutinho to be booked @ 4/1
Given the way in which I count on this sport to pan out, with Wolves doing all the attacking and West Brom sitting deep and attempting to counter assault, I feel a Wolves holding midfielder may get a card in an try to cease a counter. Joao Moutinho is nice for that and has already seen 4 yellows this season at a median of 0.31 per avg match, whereas additionally seeing crimson as soon as. His value of 4/1 seems huge to me.
Same Game Multi: Wolves to win, Under 3.5 Goals and Ruben Neves 1+ shot heading in the right direction @ 4.15
While it is going to probably be a battle, I feel Wolves will prevail, although it is going to be a low-scoring grind, much like what we count on to see from Nuno’s facet. Given the anticipated set-up of West Brom, I can see Wolves taking loads of pot-shots from distance, and the king of such makes an attempt is Ruben Neves. Adding the Portuguese to get a shot heading in the right direction boosts the worth properly.
Back huge priced Bednarek
Leicester vs Southampton
Goalscorer: Jan Bednarek to attain anytime @ 25/1
This is an enormous priced play, primarily on account of the truth that Leicester have had actual struggles from useless ball conditions this season. 32% of the Foxes xGA whole this time period has come from corners and set items, equating to 0.41 xGA per sport. That implies that Leicester are permitting 52% greater than the league common from useless ball eventualities. Southampton pose an actual risk from such conditions given the supply of James Ward-Prowse, whereas Jan Bednarek is a clumsy buyer from set items. It is a longshot play, however price a small stake.
Carded: Jonny Evans to be booked @ 5/2
While Southampton will likely be with out Danny Ings for this sport, a entrance two of Che Adams and Theo Walcott can show slippery for defenders. Jonny Evans has been a mainstay for Leicester this season, and has had his identify taken 5 instances in 13 appearances. Couple this with the truth that we’ve got a card completely happy referee taking cost of this one, as Stuart Attwell is averaging 50.5 reserving factors per sport this season, and Evans appeals.
Same Game Multi: Southampton or Draw and Under 3.5 Goals @ 2.49
Neither of those groups are prolific in assault, with Leicester closely reliant on penalties this season, which have boosted their attacking figures. The Foxes have averaged simply 1.15 non-pen xGF per sport this season, whereas Southampton have fared even worse (0.96), so I do not count on fireworks right here. Southampton have been resilient defensively although, particularly of late (0.76 xGA per sport in 5 video games previous Liverpool win), so I like their probabilities of getting one thing in a low-scoring contest.
Reds to keep away from defeat in low-scorer
Liverpool vs Manchester United
Goalscorer: Edinson Cavani to attain anytime @ 12/5
Edinson Cavani has performed a bit half for Manchester United up to now this season, however previous to his three-game ban, he was beginning to hit a groove and make an actual influence for the desk toppers. The Uruguayan will probably get the beginning on this sport, particularly with Anthony Martial questionable, and his underlying course of – albeit in restricted minutes – is spectacular (0.73 xGF/avg match). Liverpool are lacking key gamers defensively, and Cavani is a shrewd sufficient operator to take benefit.
Carded: Bruno Fernandes to be booked @ 13/5
This is extra of a value play than anything, as I just like the look of some United gamers which are maybe too brief. Fernandes was booked in midweek in opposition to Burnley after continually questioning the referee, and that was his fourth yellow this season. He averages 1.5 fouls per avg match this time period, and if issues aren’t going his approach, he may speak his approach into the ebook.
Same Game Multi: Liverpool or Draw, Under 3.5 Goals and Half Time Draw @ 3.45
I’m anticipating a really cagey sport at Anfield, with neither workforce actually desirous to lose. Manchester United have been taking part in effectively of late, however this can be a step as much as what they’ve performed of late. Liverpool’s house kind is tough to disregard, and their house course of much more so (2.37 xGF, 1.00 xGA per sport). Jurgen Klopp’s facet ought to keep away from defeat. Only one of many final 10 head-to-heads in all competitions has seen 4 or extra objectives, and I feel it will go underneath that mark. Given how cagey I count on this sport to be, a half time draw makes attraction as these two sides really feel eachother out early on.