Leeds v Liverpool
Monday 19 April, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Premier League
Europe nonetheless a lifelike goal
Leeds United have up to now loved a improbable return to the Premier League; the spotlight being final week’s smash and seize win over champions-elect Manchester City on the Etihad Stadium.
I say the above with a little bit of hesitancy nevertheless, because the 2-1 win over the Citizens won’t find yourself being the spotlight of Leeds’ season. Beat Liverpool on Monday evening and Marcelo Bielsa’s facet nonetheless have a lifelike likelihood of qualifying for the Europa League, particularly if groups above them win each the Carabao and FA Cup.
Leeds might be simply 4 factors off sixth place in the event that they take all three factors, and simply two factors behind seventh-placed Tottenham. Remember, seventh within the desk typically qualifies you for Europe if the home cup winners qualify for the Champions or Europa League via their Premier League ending place.
So Bielsa’s males having large incentive going into the sport, and they accomplish that on the again of three consecutive 2-1 victories, so confidence needs to be sky excessive, particularly after the win on the Etihad.
Champions League qualification the one goal
Liverpool’s Champions League exit in midweek has left their season on a knife-edge. The Reds have gone from being kings of Europe two years in the past and Premier League champions final season, to now being out of each cup competitors and sitting simply sixth within the desk.
It’s all or nothing now for Jurgen Klopp‘s males. Only qualifying for subsequent season’s Champions League can salvage a disastrous footballing season.
And but ought to Liverpool end within the prime 4 then some will argue that in a marketing campaign blighted by long-term and key accidents, then they’ve in all probability achieved all that they may realistically obtain underneath the circumstances, and that they’ll begin once more subsequent season.
Form, and in all probability now morale, is not nice going into Monday evening’s conflict with Leeds nevertheless. The Reds have misplaced seven of their final 14 video games, and though they’ve carried out higher on the street in that spell, they’ve endured sufficient defeats to recommend it is one step ahead and two steps again each time they’ve regarded like returning to kind.
Chance taken on in-form Leeds
I’m actually wanting ahead to this sport appropriately a ding-dong conflict between two managers who will class solely a victory as a appropriate consequence of their quest to qualify for Europe.
Leeds have come up on the rails within the race to complete within the prime six (although do not forget that seventh might qualify them for the Europa League), so a win right here will go a lengthy technique to preserving these goals alive, whereas Liverpool merely should win this in the event that they need to qualify for the Champions League advantage of a prime 4 end.
We needs to be set for a mouthwatering encounter then, and it is no shock to see Over 2.5 Goals buying and selling at simply 1.68/13; it is a an consequence that basically ought to land.
But when it comes to the Match Odds then I can’t get away from Leeds at 4.94/1 (Liverpool 1.75/7, Draw 4.77/2). They’re in the very best kind they have been in all season, have crushed the likes of Everton, Leicester and Man City this time period, and they’re up towards a facet low on confidence after their midweek Champions League exit.
I would not put anybody off backing a home victory with each groups getting on the scoresheet at round 7.06/1, however I hoped for barely larger odds so will as an alternative persist with a Leeds win by any consequence.
Shots galore with Raphinha shining
But for my major wager on this sport I’m all around the ‘shots‘ betting strains on the Betfair Sportsbook.
A easy scene-setter is the reverse fixture of the conflict at first of the season, a time when Liverpool had the likes of Virgil van Dijk and Joe Gomez – bear in mind them – of their again 4. That sport nonetheless had 28 shots on purpose with 9 of them being on course.
It was a signal of how Leeds’ season would pan out.
Games involving the Yorkshire outfit have averaged over 28 shots per sport this time period (13.84 For, 14.48 Against), with a median of 10.64 on course. Liverpool video games common virtually 24 shots per sport.
And even taking a look at Leeds’ most up-to-date video games, which incorporates a 1-0 loss to Villa and a 0-0 draw with Leeds, these ‘shots’ averages have been maintained. Their las six matches have averaged 28.8 shots at purpose with 9.4 being on course.
So it’s extremely cheap then, that in a sport the place each side might be going for the win, that we will count on a related ‘shots’ consequence.
Leeds winger Raphinha additionally appeals at 6/1 to register at the very least 4 shots within the sport.
The flamboyant Brazilian has averaged virtually three shots per sport through the season, however that common takes an upturn when simply contemplating the second half of the marketing campaign. The 24-year-old likes to get into the field, he shoots at each alternative, and he is Leeds’ go-to man on free-kicks from across the penalty space.
*You can comply with me on Twitter: @MikkyMo73