Vekic joins large names in spherical 4
We managed to choose up an underdog winner on Saturday to proceed the upturn in our marketing campaign, as Donna Vekic earned a three-set victory over Kaia Kanepi. Vekic saved a match level in set two, however finally had ten extra break level possibilities within the match. The likes of Ash Barty, Elina Svitolina, Elise Mertens and Jennifer Brady all progressed to Monday’s fourth spherical matches, however forward of those are 4 matches tomorrow as spherical 4 will get underway.
Vondrousova a strong favorite over Hsieh
First on courtroom is Su-Wei Hsieh in opposition to Marketa Vondrousova, with the 21-year-old Czech a solid 1.501/2 favourite to get the win over the veteran from Chinese Taipei. Vondrousova did not kick on as I hoped she would in 2020 – I had excessive expectations for her – however she appears to be like like a justified worth right here in opposition to Hsieh.
It’s price declaring, although, that Hsieh did get a final-set tiebreak win over Vondrousova at first of the season in Abu Dhabi, priced across the 1.384/11 mark. Vondrousova struggled on break factors within the match, which is unlikely to persistently present itself. She’s a barely greater worth tomorrow and that appears about proper, in my view.
Serena wanting some worth in opposition to Sabalenka
The subsequent three matches on the schedule promise to be high-quality, aggressive clashes with Garbine Muguruza going through match favorite Naomi Osaka concurrently Hsieh versus Vondrousova. Osaka is the 1.538/15 favourite, which once more appears to be like fairly correct – within the final 18 months on arduous courtroom, Osaka has round a 4.5% edge in service factors received, whereas Muguruza has virtually a 2% benefit on return factors received. Data for the final yr additionally has related variations.
That match must be fairly serve-orientated, with each gamers having robust maintain percentages on the floor, and this dynamic also needs to be in proof within the conflict between Aryna Sabalenka and Serena Williams, with projected maintain percentages for each gamers not removed from the 80% mark. Serena is a really slight underdog right here, and year-long numbers truly make her a marginal favorite, with slightly below a 1% edge on service/return factors received for the reason that tour resumed.
For all of Sabalenka’s good work this yr already, it is truly Williams with higher 2021 numbers too, and she or he has higher numbers on this match to this point of their three matches so far as effectively.
The 2.166/5 about Serena appears to be like the greatest worth spot of the day, and whereas it isn’t one thing I feel is big worth, it appears to be like affordable sufficient. Both gamers are but to drop a set within the match, so one thing has to provide right here.
Halep favorite for clay-courter battle
Finally, there may be an attention-grabbing conflict between two gamers who might effectively be the favourites for the French Open in just a few months time. Iga Swiatek and Simona Halep have typically accomplished their greatest work on clay however Swiatek appears to be like to have slightly extra upside on arduous courtroom long-term.
Halep virtually exited to Ajla Tomljanovic in spherical two, and is the 1.824/5 favourite to get previous Swiatek tomorrow. My mannequin went barely decrease on the Romanian, Halep, however it’s not a spot that I feel is especially noteworthy.
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