Australian Open Men’s Day Ten: Tsitsipas v Nadal

The match sensation, Aslan Karatsev, continued his beautiful journey with a quarter-final win over Grigor Dimitrov in 4 units, and now faces the winner of the match between Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev. The duo are, on the time of writing, locked in a detailed battle so it is tough to name.

We have an all-Russian conflict to start out off tomorrow’s males’s quarter-final schedule, that includes two gamers who’re already making enormous progress on the ATP Tour and will conceivably be that includes at or in direction of the highest of the rankings for a while to come back.

For this, Daniil Medvedev is a 1.4740/85 favourite to defeat countryman Andrey Rublev, and Medvedev’s standing as a pre-match favorite seems fairly justified.

Since the tour resumed, he has a slight edge on each service and return factors received, and comes into the match now 18 unbeaten in a run which incorporates beating prime 10 opposition on 9 events out of these 18 – so not solely is he successful, however he is beating high quality gamers too.

Rublev can be unbeaten in 9 and comes off the again of a breakthrough 2020 the place he received 5 tournaments in a shortened season, which was a implausible achievement.

He has misplaced all 4 earlier conferences with Medvedev, failing to win even a set in any of them, though it must be famous that Rublev wasn’t even a prime 30 participant in three of the matches and Medvedev was a powerful pre-match favorite in all of them. Such caveats illustrate the frequent risks of studying an excessive amount of into many head-to-head information.

The final males’s quarter-final on the schedule is between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Rafa Nadal.

For this, once more we see a one-sided head-to-head document between the duo, with Nadal main the sequence 6-1 in most important tour matches, however once more it lacks context. Nadal was a sub 1.251/4 favorite within the first 5 conferences and is not tomorrow – he is priced larger at 1.558/15 to make the semi-finals. Plus, Tsitsipas was ranked outdoors the highest 10 of their first three clashes as nicely.

It’s fascinating to notice that in these earlier conferences, Tsitsipas has had actual points on serve, successful lower than 60% of service factors. While the common participant may need such numbers in opposition to Nadal – one of the best returner on tour – it ought to concern Tsitsipas supporters {that a} participant with very robust serve numbers generally has these points.

My numbers like Rafa for this, with my mannequin pricing him at 1.351/3 to get the win. Tsitsipas is on an upward curve however I discover him a bit over-rated by the market – each issues may be potential on the identical time – and my mannequin hardly finds him worth.

With this in thoughts, Nadal on the current market price of 1.558/15 is my advice for Wednesday.

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