Djokovic pushed out within the outright market following health doubts
With one exception, the eight third-round matches on Saturday within the males’s event had been extraordinarily one sided, with six being determined in three straight units. There was an upset, nevertheless, with Alex De Minaur crashing out to Fabio Fognini, whereas Filip Krajinovic gave Daniil Medvedev an actual scare preventing again from two units right down to take it to 5 units.
The high half of the draw will get spherical 4 began on Sunday, and that features Novak Djokovic who has now drifted out to around 7.06/1 third favorite following the harm points which beset him in his win over Taylor Fritz. The world primary continues his event – assuming he does not withdraw – towards Milos Raonic within the evening match (not earlier than 930am UK time).
Raonic with greatest likelihood of lastly defeating Djokovic
Djokovic has gained all eleven of their earlier conferences, stemming again to September 2013, and in these matches, he is disarmed the robust serve of Raonic – the Canadian has held serve lower than 75% of the time in profession matches towards Djokovic, and that is even with robust break level overperformance on serve in comparison with service factors gained expectation.
Raonic has damaged Djokovic lower than 10% of the time, and if there was a fully-fit Djokovic taking to the court docket on Sunday, Raonic could be needing to overturn not simply historic outcomes however underlying efficiency ranges to trigger an upset. However, the health doubts surrounding Djokovic arguably give Raonic the very best likelihood to get his first profession win of their head-to-head sequence.
Interestingly, Djokovic is likely one of the longer-priced favourites on Sunday within the males’s occasion, with Alexander Zverev the shortest at 1.101/10 for his match towards Dusan Lajovic. It could be a actual shock if Zverev was defeated, given Lajovic’s common desire to clay-courts versus laborious, however the German does look slightly quick at present market costs.
Thiem slightly quick for Dimitrov conflict
This can also be the case for Dominic Thiem at 1.331/3 versus Grigor Dimitrov. Numbers-wise, it is powerful to make a case for Thiem at these costs and I make him extra across the 1.501/2 mark to get the higher of the Bulgarian. This is, by a ways, the shortest worth Thiem has been towards Dimitrov away from clay of their profession, and really there is not even an enormous discrepancy between their post-lockdown numbers throughout all surfaces.
Given this, Dimitrov appears to be like some cautious worth on the current 3.90 and we must always be capable to get round even cash about him with a 4.5 recreation head begin on the sport handicap.
Tournament sensation Karatsev with intriguing conflict towards Auger-Aliassime
Before this, nevertheless, there’s an intriguing conflict between Felix Auger-Aliassime and the event sensation, Aslan Karatsev. If the market had priced Auger-Aliassime at 1.654/6 earlier than the beginning of the season, it could have been assumed to be a mistake however the qualifier, Karatsev, is now six unbeaten this yr and has solely dropped one set – towards excessive potential American participant, Brandon Nakashima.
Karatsev despatched Diego Schwartzman within the third spherical in straight units, though it is honest to level out that the Argentine had points changing break level probabilities. Karatsev has nice numbers this yr (over 120% mixed service/return factors gained) throughout three qualifiers and three Australian Open matches however nonetheless has overperformed on key factors primarily based on expectations from these numbers – he is taking part in extraordinarily effectively however can also be having fun with slightly optimistic variance.
In my view, that is essentially the most intriguing match of the day. We do not actually ever see a participant come from the Challenger Tour aged of their late twenties and all of a sudden changing into one of many higher gamers on the principle tour, so will probably be fascinating to see how Karatsev performs towards one other participant who appears to be like on an upward curve.
Follow Dan on Twitter @TennisRatings