This 12 months’s Main Event has a really odd payout structure for the closing ten gamers and Barry Carter appears at the ICM implications of it.
One of the curiosities about this 12 months’s Main Event is the payout structure for the closing ten gamers. There is a large pay soar from tenth to ninth on the closing desk bubble of $425,000, nonetheless there’s solely $400,000 of distinction between ninth and sixth. Also the high prize is sort of double that of the 2nd place.
It’s very uncommon to see such a steep pay soar adopted by smaller pay jumps, and it looks as if the prize pool was tinkered with to create a marketable first prize of $8,000,000 whereas additionally ensuring everybody at the closing desk turns into a millionaire.
I’ve in contrast this 12 months’s payouts with the 2019 Main Event closing desk bubble, the place you’ll be able to see a way more linear improve from pay soar to pay soar.
|Position||2019 Prize||2021 Prize|
Because I had just written a book on ICM a couple of individuals had talked about the odd payout structure to me and what it’d imply for the technique at the closing desk. To look at that I believed it was greatest to take the chip counts from the 2019 closing desk bubble and look at the technique, then put the identical chip counts into the 2021 payout structure and see the variations. My suspicion was that the play can be dramatically tighter from tenth to ninth, however be considerably looser from ninth onwards, as a result of the payout structure turns into so high heavy.
First a fast look at the 2019 closing desk bubble chip stacks:
I then appeared at the Bubble Factor of every participant on the closing desk bubble. Bubble Factor is approach too advanced to clarify right here, we cowl it in our new e book, however to essentially simplify it the larger it’s the tighter it’s important to be to name an all-in. It’s a relative metric, your Bubble Factor shall be larger towards gamers who can bust or at least damage you.
Below is a desk for every Bubble Factor at the closing desk bubble in 2019. This was created utilizing ICMIZER 3 which is a really great tool for understanding ICM and actually useful as a result of it exhibits you the Bubble Factor of each participant towards each different participant.
For instance Hossien Ensan who’s UTG has a Bubble Factor of 1.1 towards Nick Marchington who us UTG1. This is a very low Bubble Factor in reality it is near ChipEV. He would solely must have 52.3% fairness right here to interrupt even. This is as a result of Ensan was the huge stack and shedding an all-in to Marchington wouldn’t damage him an excessive amount of.
Garry Gates, nonetheless, has a Bubble Factor of two.26 towards Ensan, as a result of Gates was 2nd in chips. Being eradicated as 2nd in chips can be a catastrophe and Gates wants nearly 69% fairness to be breakeven towards Ensan. Against most ranges which may imply folding Queens and definitely folding Ace King:
If we magically transported that closing desk bubble to this 12 months’s occasion, as you’ll be able to see the Bubble Factors are all a bit of bit larger due to that huge pay soar. Alex Livingston, the brief stack, for instance, goes from 1.43 to 1.61. This is a soar from needing 59% fairness to needing 61.5% fairness. Against a participant with a decent vary that’s the distinction between with the ability to name with Pocket Jacks to having to fold them (Ace King is a fold in each eventualities by the approach). Looking at the different spots at the desk this was just about relative the distinction between the payout buildings, not a lot. However, as we now have written earlier than getting a calling vary flawed by one pip will be very pricey. Ultimately the closing desk bubble is tight no matter the pay soar as after the cash bubble it is when ICM performs the largest function.
The largest strategic adjustments occur after the closing desk bubble has burst. This is what the official closing desk appeared like in 2019:
These are the new Bubble Factors as soon as we now have reached the finale:
And these are the adjusted Bubble Factors if we had used the 2021 payout structure:
You’ll discover they’ve all gone down significantly in comparison with the closing desk bubbles. In the 2021 instance Garry Gates now has a Bubble Factor of 1.97 in comparison with 2.23. Comparing the official closing tables in the 2021 instance everybody can get their cash in wider as a result of the payout structure is so high heavy. Not dramatically it needs to be stated, it’s normally going to be the case of the backside of the calling ranges will get one ‘pip’ wider however broadly talking you’ll be able to see the color coding (Green which means broad all the strategy to Red which means tight) has modified for lots of the Bubble Factors.
So as suspected the closing desk bubble is extra extreme in 2021, although not as a lot as anticipated, and the gamers are much less incentivised to ladder as soon as it bursts this 12 months. I did some extra sims to mirror how the match progressed with each bust out and the 2021 examples have been all wider for the identical purpose, there’s extra incentive to go for the high prize than in 2019 when locking up a assured huge money was extra essential.
These are all simplified toy sport examples however the broader classes about Bubble Factor, and whom you need to keep away from locking horns with, are value exploring. We cowl it intimately in our new e book and ICMIZER 3 makes it very easy to mess around with these numbers as a result of it shows each Bubble Factor for each clear up.
Thoughts on the 2021 payout structure? Let us know in the feedback: